Champions League: before the 7th day, Brest has “31.7% chance” of finishing in the top 8

In the cloud of vagueness surrounding the new format of the Champions League, mathematics sometimes seems to be the only science to rely on. However, it is difficult to speak of exact science regarding the probabilities, which are rather exciting about Stade Brestois: before the 7th day of the Champions League, the Rouge et Blanc have a “31.7% chance” of directly joining the eighth of final at the end of the league phase.

With 16 points, the top 8 would not yet be assured

To reach this precise figure, mathematician Julien Guyon relies on the result of a million simulations from the last two days, themselves relying on the elo coefficient (linked to the level of each team) as fresh as possible.

“Between the day after the 6th day and the start of the 7th day, Paris Saint-Germain, for example, goes from 62 to 67% chance of qualifying for the play-offs thanks to its good form,” indicates the mathematics professor. applied at the National School of Bridges and Roads.

At 31.7% before the 7th day, the percentage chance of seeing Stade Brestois place in the top 8 at the end of the league phase “rises to 60% in the event of a victory against Shakhtar”, indicates the mathematician. A success this Wednesday, which would see the Brestois fall to 16 points, will therefore not yet be enough to talk about top 8.

“The eighth will probably be around 16 points, but that doesn’t mean that having 16 points will be enough,” he continues, indicating that “17 points should be enough.”

Eyes on Bayern and Dortmund

In the event of a defeat against Shakhtar, on the other hand, the percentage chance of seeing Brest in the top 8 would drop to 6%, according to its data, and to 25% in the event of a draw. Logically weaker data, because they imply a favorable result of SB29 against Real Madrid on the eighth day, judged as less probable according to the elo scores of the two clubs.

These results obviously remain to be refined at the end of the matches on the 7th day, some of which could have a considerable impact on Brest’s hopes. This is the case of that of Dortmund (in Bologna) and Bayern (in Feyenoord), respectively ninth and tenth in the ranking, and therefore victories would lower the chances of seeing Brest reach the round of 16 directly. “The difference, for Brest, between a victory and a defeat for Bayern on the Feyenoord pitch is of the order of nine percentage points,” indicates the mathematician.