3 Will other countries follow?
This raises the risk that other major polluters, such as China and India, will reduce their environmental ambitions or even leave the Paris agreement. No country has so far followed Washington in this direction. But the Argentine government of ultraliberal President Javier Milei – ally of Donald Trump – recently said it was “reassessing” its position on the matter.
“Climate change is a common challenge facing all humanity, and no country can remain indifferent or solve the problem alone”
4 How did China react?
China, the leading country emitting greenhouse gases, declared itself “worried” on Tuesday. “Climate change is a common challenge facing all humanity, and no country can remain indifferent or solve the problem alone,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said. For Li Shuo, an expert on these negotiations at the Asia Society Policy Institute, China will strongly support climate multilateralism during the Trump mandate. During the first American withdrawal, the Chinese remained attached to the Paris agreement and did not renounce their long-term objectives. Beijing is even, in the annual COPs, an essential negotiator, which informally directs negotiations with rich countries on behalf of a bloc of developing countries.
5 Can the deal survive?
With almost the entire world still remaining a member (except a few countries including Iran, Libya and Yemen), the agreement will survive, believe diplomats and experts, who recall that for ten years, the collective commitments of the countries of the world have improved predictions of future warming. The agreement “is a pact that goes beyond the United States,” insists Frances Colon, of the Center for American Progress, a think tank close to American Democrats.
“The current context is very different from that of 2017. The global transition benefits from unstoppable economic momentum”
If this withdrawal is “regrettable”, it does not mean the end of this multilateral action, insisted Laurence Tubiana, architect of the Paris agreement. “The current context is very different from that of 2017. The global transition is benefiting from unstoppable economic momentum. » The renewable energy sector continues to grow, notes Simon Stiell, head of the UN Climate Change, for whom it is the “good economic deal of the decade”. “Ignoring it is tantamount to leaving this wealth to competing economies.” The withdrawal of the United States could thus give China and the European Union “an advantage”, believes Ani Dasgupta, director of the American think tank World Resources Institute.
-6 What about developing economies?
Brazil is one of the countries that wants to be leaders on the climate: it will host COP30 in November. Its president, Lula, although in favor of the development of oil exploration, positions himself as the world’s standard-bearer for the environment and, since he took office, deforestation in the Amazon has fallen. Brazil also chairs BRICS, the bloc of major developing economies, which seeks to reshape the world order. China and India are among them.
Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, praises his country’s “leadership” in solar and wind power. And China produces more than half of the world’s electric vehicles, 70% of wind turbines and 80% of solar panels, which has significantly reduced the cost, including for the countries to which it exports.
“Europe will stay the course and continue to cooperate with all nations who have the will to protect nature and stop global warming”
7 What position for Europe?
The Paris climate agreement “remains the best hope of all humanity”, underlined this Tuesday the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. Europe “will therefore stay the course and continue to cooperate with all nations who have the will to protect nature and stop global warming,” she insisted at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
The European Union has a long tradition of climate leadership and has reduced its emissions by 7.5% between 2022 and 2023, far ahead of other large, rich countries. It is also the leading international donor in the fight against climate change. During Trump’s first term, the EU and China launched a climate dialogue with Canada, pending the return of the Americans.
8 Is this the only Trump measure potentially impacting the climate?
Related News :