The bad news continues for motorists. Fuel prices are clearly on an upward trend according to surveys carried out in France the week of January 13 to 19 by the Ministry of Ecological Transition. With a liter of diesel which posted 1.72 euros that week and 1.77 euros for the liter of SP 95-E10, the downward trend recorded in the second half of 2024 is well behind us.
For these two fuels, the increase is respectively 6 and 3 cents per liter since the start of 2025. For a full 35 liters of diesel, the surplus at the pump is 2.10 euros.
These prices had not been reached since July 2024, when prices began to fall to the level of those observed before the war in Ukraine. In the middle of last summer, SP 95-E10 was priced at 1.78 euros per liter and diesel at 1.68 euros.
The first reason for this increase is the weakening of the euro against the dollar, the currency of exchange for crude oil. This disadvantageous price has exacerbated the rise in the barrel of Brent, which serves as a reference on the financial markets. The latter is quoted at 78.6 euros per barrel compared to 71.7 euros at the start of the year.
-If the price of a barrel has increased, it is in particular for geopolitical reasons. The United Kingdom and the United States began to take sanctions against hydrocarbons which continued to come illegally from Russia despite the embargo decreed. “Recently, these two countries have declared that they are paying more attention to this supply,” confirms Francis Pousse, president of fuel distributors (excluding supermarkets) at Mobilians, the union for distribution and automobile trades.
These factors affect diesel more than gasoline for seasonal reasons. The increase in demand for fuel oil for heating while temperatures have fallen significantly since mid-December is reducing the supply of diesel, derived from the same refined products. And it automatically increases the price in winter. “It’s a safe bet that in the spring we will return to the usual gap between gasoline and diesel,” estimates Francis Pousse. The latter was reduced to 5 cents compared to just over 10 cents at the end of October.
“We will have to be attentive to Donald Trump’s announcements, which could impact the market,” warns the fuel professional. The new American president wants to take measures to revive oil exploitation in the United States, which would be conducive to a drop in prices. Apart from this event, the slowdown in the global economy and energy demand, particularly in China, should favor advantageous prices. At least, as long as the countries of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) do not decide to turn off the tap.
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