What economic growth scenario in 2025?

Three growth scenarios

There is not a single scenario like every year, but three economic growth scenarios were constructed for 3. These three scenarios were presented in Resolution No. 2025/NQ-CP on the main measures to implement the socio-economic development. State budget plan and forecast for 01 by Prime Minister The government has just published it.

These three scenarios correspond to the socio-economic development objectives set for 2025. Concretely, according to the resolution of the National Assembly, in 2025, GDP growth will reach 6.5 to 7%, striving to achieve 7 to 7.5%. At the same time, the government is determined to bring the economy to a growth rate of 8% and reach a higher level, perhaps up to double digits (10%), if conditions are favorable.

Accordingly, in the lowest scenario, for full-year economic growth to reach 6.5-7%, in the first quarter the growth rate must be 6.2-6.6%. . This figure in the second quarter was 6.5 to 7%; 6 months is 6.4-6.8%; the third quarter is 6.6-7.1%; 9 months equals 6.5-7.1%; The fourth quarter is expected to grow 6.6% to 7.2%. At the same time, in the scenario of economic growth of 8%, as the government’s objective, in the first quarter, GDP growth is expected to reach 7.7%. The corresponding figures for the second quarter, 6 months, third quarter, 9 months and fourth quarter are 8%; 7.9%; 8.1%; 7.9% and 8.3%.

The highest, and perhaps also the most ambitious, is the 10% growth target that the government hopes to achieve, in order to lay the foundation for the acceleration and breakthrough period from 2026 to 2030, with growth two digits. Thus, over all quarters of the year, GDP growth must be at least 2%. Concretely, in the first quarter, growth must be 9%; the second quarter is 9.4%; 10 months 6%; third quarter, 9.7%; 19 months 9%; The fourth quarter was 9.8% and the full year was 10.5%.

In view of these figures, we see that the growth scenario of 6.5 to 7% is the simplest to achieve. Because with a growth rate of 7.09% in 2024, as well as a more positive trend in the Vietnamese and global economies, the possibility of achieving growth equivalent to 2024 is possible.

In a recently released report, UOB Bank raised its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth for 2025 to 7%, from 6.6% previously. According to the bank’s explanation, it raised Vietnam’s growth forecast after GDP growth in 2024 far exceeded the general forecast (6.7%), as well as the set target (6.5%). . “We expect more positive changes in national dynamics, such as production, domestic consumption and tourist arrivals. travel, especially in the first half of the year,” commented the UOB experts.

Speaking earlier at the Spring Economy Forum, Mr. Suan Teck Kin, economic expert and General Manager of Market Research and Global Economy of UOB Bank (Singapore), said that although Vietnam will face many major challenges related to many economic fields, constitute three important opportunities to promote economic development this year.

With an impressive GDP growth rate of 7.09% in 2024, Vietnam has proven its enduring strength in a volatile global context. This is a solid foundation for Vietnam to overcome immediate difficulties and take advantage of new development opportunities in the times to come.

Meanwhile, the research team of expert Can Van Luc and the BIDV Training and Research Institute considered the growth scenario of 7 to 7.5% “negative”, with a possibility of about 20%. The hypothetical situation is that external risks increase and have more negative economic impacts. world growth is slower than expected, and in the country, the growth engines have not been as effective as expected or only at a level equivalent to 2024… In other words, according to the expert Can Van Luc, at less, GDP growth will reach 7 -7.5%, equivalent to the objective assigned by the National Assembly to the Government.

According to expert Can Van Luc’s research team, the remaining two options have a probability of 60% for the 8% growth scenario. This is the so-called “basic” scenario, with the hypothesis that the dynamic of economic recovery continues to be maintained, that the determination to make institutional progress, that the confidence of businesses and citizens is strengthened and that growth engines of new media and media are favored. and operated more efficiently. As for the positive scenario, growth of 9 to 9.5%, the probability of it happening is 20%. And the condition is that global economic growth is higher than forecast; growth drivers drive greater efficiency; economic restructuring, strategic breakthroughs are favored…

Economic journey 2025

Many economic growth scenarios are proposed. Therefore, the direction the economy takes will largely depend on the solutions and actions taken by ministries, localities and the business community. At the same time, it also depends on developments in the global economy, global geopolitical fluctuations as well as the policies of the administration of US President Donald Trump.

Some challenges continue to be highlighted by economic experts, although there is still broad consensus on the growth potential of the Vietnamese economy.

“Currently, the growth rate of final consumption is only about 5-6%, compared with before the epidemic, this is a double-digit increase. To promote growth, it is necessary to further stimulate the economy’s final consumption,” said Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam, former director general of the General Statistics Office, at the recent Economic Forum. According to him, we cannot cannot feel safe with this engine which represents 2% of GDP growth.

Likewise, exports could face difficulties when U.S. trade policies change. The disbursement of public investments is also not easy to achieve. The new growth engines will not be able to fully produce their effects anytime soon.

Government Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP proposed up to 12 groups of key tasks and solutions. In particular, institutional breakthroughs are considered “breakthroughs of breakthroughs”, which must come early and pave the way for development. At the same time, priority must be given to the strong promotion of economic growth associated with maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, guaranteeing major balances in the economy and achieving a surplus. pupil…

In these two groups of solutions, the Government orders to have stronger, more drastic and more timely solutions to accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital from the beginning of 2025, in particular projects of national importance, key projects and national target programs; Use public investment to lead private investment, strengthening public-private cooperation. At the same time, build an effective mechanism to selectively attract foreign investment capital in a number of potential areas, creating breakthroughs and new growth engines such as chips, semiconductors and innovation, green hydrogen…

Likewise, promote and create breakthroughs for new growth engines, green economic development, circular economy, e-commerce and new efficient business models; promote emerging industries and fields…

In solutions to promote growth in 2025, Mr. Dau Anh Tuan, Deputy Secretary General of the Vietnam Confederation of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), highlighted the “space for growth” that the business sector can bring. Therefore, Tuan said, it is important to resolve congestion in this area and quickly introduce capital and goods into the economy.

Minister of the Ministry of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, emphasizing what needs to be done for the economy to accelerate and achieve a breakthrough in 2025, also stressed the need to unlock resources from the business sector, including including private companies and foreign-invested companies. “In every industry, field and locality, breakthrough targets for the coming period must be determined. Dynamic areas and growth poles such as Hà Nội and Ho Chi Minh City must grow to assert its role as leader, leader of the growth of the entire country,” underlined Minister Nguyen Chi Dung.

This task was also entrusted by the Prime Minister to the localities. Many localities across the country, including Ho Chi Minh City, have also pledged efforts to achieve this goal. On the day the government met to discuss with localities, Mr. Nguyen Van Mai, Chairman of the People’s Committee of Ho Chi Minh City, affirmed that Ho Chi Minh City had determined that 2025 was the year of ‘acceleration to reach the finish line, striving to achieve and surpass everything, including socio-economic goals, preparation of plans and implementation of the necessary conditions to enter the new mandate with the objective of double-digit growth.