Basede on the latest figures for the reference population published by INSEE on December 19, 2024, this note provides a first comment on the demographic dynamics to scale of the Greater Paris Metropolis.
As of January 1, 2022, 7,115,576 people live in the Greater Paris Metropolis. Between 2016 and 2022, the population increased by +0.2% on annual average, i.e. a lower rate than during the previous period (+0.3%). Population growth is mainly carried by the territories located in Seine-Saint-Denis. Other areas, located to the south and southeast of Paris, such as Grand-Orly Seine Bièvre (T12) and Grand Paris Sud Est Avenir (T11), also contribute to population increaseas well as Boucle Nord de Seine (T5), north of Hauts-de-Seine. This dynamic relates exclusively to natural balance, although it is in slight decline over the period. The excess of births over deaths thus leads to a gain of 57,150 people per year on average in the Greater Paris Metropolis, instead of 66,300 per year. on the previous period. Net migration, that is to say the difference between arrivals and departures, remains in deficit (-42,300 people on average per year, or -0.6% between 2016-2021).
Beyond demographic factors, the evolution of the territory’s population is also dependent on factors linked to the evolution of the housing stock and his occupation. In the Greater Paris Metropolis, the number of main residences (dwellings occupied at least 6 months per year) has increased but at a less pronounced rate than the total number of dwellings (+173,700 dwellings between 2015 and 2021 but only +100,500 main residences). At the same time, the average number of people per occupied dwelling decreased from 2.20 in 2015 to 2.16 in 2021 in connection with the drop in births and the aging of the population. These two factors contribute to the slowdown in population growth observed over the period.
In Paris, the correlation between the evolution of the population and the evolution of the stock of main residences is particularly strong. The increase in unoccupied housing which includes second homes, occasional housing and vacant housing impacts the population downward. The more recent decrease in the average size of households has also played an increasingly important role in the decline in population in recent years. At 1is January 2022, Paris welcomes 2,113,705 people, a decrease of 12,800 inhabitants on average each year over the period 2016-2022. This development is accompanied by an aging of the population as on the metropolitan scale. By 2040, according to the latest INSEE projections, nearly one in five residents would be 65 years old or over in the Greater Paris Metropolis.
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