Since the start of the war, Hamas has recruited almost as many fighters as it has lost to Israel.

Speaking at an Atlantic Council event in Washington on Tuesday (January 14), US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that “every time Israel ends its military operations and rolls back Hamas, the militants regroup and reappear because there is nothing else to fill the void.” As a result, American services estimate that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost. .

These statements come as Hamas and Israel are on the verge of reaching an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza.

• Hamas was able to retain a significant part of its capabilities despite the assassination in July 2024 of the head of the group’s political bureau, Ismaël Haniyeh, and the leader of its military branch Mohammed Deïf.
• The Israeli army is said to have eliminated between 6,000 and 7,000 members of Hamas (military and civilian branch combined) since the terrorist attack of October 7, 2023, out of the 20 to 30,000 fighters that the group had. .
• According to statements by Hamas members and despite the intensive military campaign led by the IDF in the Gaza Strip, the group has retained access to “a considerable part of its tunnel infrastructure” and has rebuilt some tunnels destroyed by Israel. .

The ceasefire agreement in Gaza which could be announced as early as today, Wednesday January 15, provides in a first phase of 42 days for the release by Hamas of 33 Israeli hostages out of the 98 who would still be held by the group. In exchange, Israel would release up to 1,000 Palestinian prisoners and partially withdraw its troops from the enclave.

• It seems that this agreement, in negotiations for several months, is precipitated by the return to power of Donald Trump on January 20. Despite 11 visits by Antony Blinken to Israel between November 2023 and October 2024, the Biden administration was unable to reach an agreement last year.
• When negotiations resumed in October — following a temporary abandonment of discussions in August 2024 — Blinken identified Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 terrorist attack, as being “the greatest obstacle to concluding a an agreement.” He was finally eliminated by the IDF on October 16.

For Netanyahu, an agreement that does not involve a process leading to the dismantling of Hamas would constitute a defeat and threaten his coalition. Ultra-conservative National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir threatened to leave the government in the event of a deal and urged Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to follow him .