Rising uranium prices redraw the supply map

The rise in uranium prices is first and foremost a driving force for historic producers, such as Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia, to name just three. And then there are the States whose forgotten or neglected reserves become, at current market prices, much more interesting. States which “ are increasing regulatory changes, explorations and incentive policies with the aim of launching – or relaunching – national production », assure the authors of rapport published by the Observatory for the Security of Energy Flows and Materials and coordinated by the Institute of International and Strategic Relations.

Among these countries, we can cite the Brazilwhich launched a major prospecting and exploitation program in 2022. The state company INB (Industrias Nucleares do Brasil) has established ties with Russia, India and South Korea to launch new exploration campaigns across the country. Only one mine is currently active – it produces around 500 tonnes – but the identified reserves would be enormous. We are talking about 300,000 tonnes, knowing that 75% of Brazilian territory has not been explored, notes the OSFME study.

Promising but uncertain deadlines

The situation is less obvious in Mongoliabut the country is seen as a potential uranium El Dorado. The largest resources of radioactive ore in the world are believed to be found in this territory. Several companies, including the French Orano, are positioned and hope to launch their operations by 2030.

There is also the Kyrgyzstan which has just lifted the moratorium on uranium exploration established five years ago, and the Tanzaniawhich develops its resources with Russia as a privileged partner. Four countries which could make it possible to achieve less concentrated global production than today. But these are long-term and still uncertain prospects, note the authors of Iris.

Also readUranium: Frenchman Orano initiates “international arbitration” against Niger

Corridors from Central Asia

Market developments and Russia’s entry into the war in Ukraine have, at the same time, redesigned the routes: Kazakhstan, the world’s leading producer, now favors routes that do not cross Russia. In 2023, more than 60% of the exports of Kazatomprom, the state company, to the western market took the corridor which passes through the Caspian Sea and which connects the main Kazakh production centers to the Mediterranean.

Another route is also expected to become increasingly essential, to ensure uranium trade between Kazakhstan and China. The construction of a logistics warehouse in the border town of Alashankou by 2026 will materialize the new ambitions of this highly strategic uranium corridor between the two countries.

Also readUranium: Russian giant Rosatom withdraws from extraction sites in Kazakhstan and sells its shares to China