A few days before his swearing in, the president-elect has considerable strengths, but significant weaknesses are already apparent.
With the concentration of power in the White House, the immunity that the Supreme Court has conferred on its occupant and the unprecedented control he exercises over his party which controls the three branches of government, Donald Trump is in a position of very enviable strength.
Add to this the experience he now possesses and his almost supernatural power to survive controversies and scandals. He also benefits from the gloom of the Democratic clan in the aftermath of a heartbreaking defeat.
Donald Trump is indeed very strong, but he is not omnipotent. The transition has revealed many flaws that will complicate his life.
Improvisation et contradictions
One of Trump’s weaknesses in his first term was his inability to effectively manage the bureaucracy of the presidency.
The chaos currently reigning in the process of forming his cabinet indicates that he has not overcome this problem. The transition is so poorly organized that his administration will probably not be able to operate at full capacity during the fateful first 100 days.
Several confirmation hearings for his ministers had to be postponed due to lack of adequate preparation.
The transition also resulted in major retractions of his campaign promises. Trump famously promised to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict within 48 hours of his election. It hasn’t happened and Trump admitted recently that it will take several months. Anyway, forget it.
So is his promise to lower grocery prices. He backpedaled on this, saying it would be too difficult to reverse inflation. Ditto for the vast budget cuts promised by Elon Musk, the target amount of which is shrinking visibly.
One day or another, these broken promises will fall back on him.
A divided entourage
The transition has also revealed many sources of conflict in Trump’s immediate entourage and within the coalition on which he relies.
Trump’s immediate entourage is full of characters with oversized egos who could cause serious rifts in his team. For example, the strategist Steve Bannon, vociferous standard-bearer of the populist right opposed to all forms of immigration, recently made a strong outing against the immigrant Elon Musk and other big bosses of high technology, who depend on skilled foreign labor, accusing them of discriminating against “pure” Americans in favor of immigrants.
Trump can’t do without Musk’s billions, but he also can’t do without the millions of his nativist and xenophobic supporters who are calling for a near-total shutdown of immigration.
These divisions in Trump’s inner circle accentuate the divisions already present among congressional Republicans, whose majorities are so slim that they cannot afford any dissension.
Donald Trump will be a powerful president who would be wrong not to take seriously, but it would also be wrong to exaggerate his omnipotence. The chinks in his armor are already starting to show.
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