COTidienne | Cereals market on January 14, 2025 – Wheat and corn prices on Euronext are penalized by the rise in the euro against the dollar

THE prix wheat and corn bowed down Euronext between January 13 and 14, under the influence of several factors. First of all, profit taking after the price increases following the publication of a rapport USDA bullish intervened. In addition, the burst ofeuro compared to the dollar penalized the competitiveness of European origins in exports, which weighed on prices. In addition, the delay of European exports of cereals continues to increase, while the original wheat Argentine et Australia arrive on the markets. The greater than expected tension on the US corn balance sheet, highlighted by the USDA, still provided some support for European corn prices. Those of wheat found it in the clear drop in Russian exports of wheat and barley at the start of 2025.
The fall in prices had repercussions on the markets French physics of soft wheat,barley fodder and corn.

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The decline in Russian exports in wheat comes in particular from the lesser presence of theEgypt on international markets. Since the announcement of the transition between the GASC and the military agency Mostakbal Misr for public imports, no tender has not been launched. According to StoneX analyst Matt Ammerman, international traders are hesitant about the lack of information on purchasing conditions. Only a few transactions were concluded directly with the Russia. For consultant Mike Verdin, the absence of Egyptian calls for tender reduces the transparency of the global market, these usually providing visibility on the competitiveness of origins Black Sea.

To UNITED STATESthe markets experienced contrasting developments. The quotes of but on the CBOT in Chicago fell from one session to the next, under selling pressure from farmers United States. They are indeed benefiting from the latest price increases initiated by the USDA monthly report published on January 10. But buying pressure from funds remained. Another bearish element, the forecast of rains moderate on theArgentineaccording to the European meteorological model. These could bring some relief to crops, penalized by the lack of precipitation for several weeks. The vegetation indices also allow us to maintain a little optimism about the good development of the crop. However, Conab revised its forecast for production corn for Brazil at 119.55 Mt, much lower than that of the USDA (127 Mt). The harvest should still increase from one year to the next thanks to the increase in yields. The Brazilian agency left its export forecast unchanged.

In wheat, the market was split between a small price increase on the CBOT in Chicago and a drop in Kansas City for winter wheat and Minneapolis for spring wheat. The fall of the dollar compared to other currencies indeed supported prices, but the context remains very competitive for American wheat with the arrival of that of thesouthern hemisphere (Australia et Argentine). Yesterday’s Jordanian purchase of wheat thus proved the competitiveness of Australian origin over a large part of the Middle East. The latter is also best placed towards theAsia. Cold temperatures across the Great Plains provided some price support, even though most crops are protected by a layer of snow.

Note that the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance yesterday denounced the non-compliance by exporters Kazakhs of the ban on imports since the Kazakhstan towards the Russia. Only transshipment was permitted. The state service has pointed out the risk of congestion at Russian ports.

Finally, let us point out that the prices of cereals fodder in Ukraine (corn and barley) continue their progression, faced with the absence of offers and dynamic demand on the domestic market andexportationaccording to APK-Inform.

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Fundamentals:

• Brazil, corn, production : 119.55 Mt against 119.63 Mt for the previous estimate (Conab)

Commerce international :

• Russia, wheat, exports : 468,000 t between January 1 and 10 (Interfax agency)
• Russia, barley, exports : 10,400 t between January 1 and 10 (Interfax agency)
• Brazil, corn, exports : 34 Mt, forecast unchanged compared to the previous one, but down from one year to the next (Conab)
• Jordan, wheat, purchase : 60 000 t à 267,60 $/t C&F (Reuters)

European export and import as of January 12, 2025:
(source: European Commission)

French physical markets from January 14, 2025 (July base for cereals)

Quotations of milling products from January 14, 2025

Commercial quotations for dairy products from January 9, 2025

Dollar/euro evolution of January 14, 2025

Chicago Futures Market Close January 14, 2025

Closing of the Euronext futures market on January 14, 2025

International market quotes from January 14, 2025