Russia’s presence in Syria: is there a future for Moscow in the country?

For years, Russia and Syria have been key partners: Moscow has had access to air and sea bases in the Mediterranean and Damascus has received military support in its fight against rebel forces. Today, after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, many Syrians want Russian forces to leave, but the interim government says it is open to continued cooperation.

“The crimes committed by Russia are indescribable,” said Ahmed Taha, a top rebel commander in Douma, six kilometers northeast of Damascus. “This is an indescribable crime.”

It was once a prosperous place, the main city in a region known as the “breadbasket” of Damascus.

Today, it lies in ruins after the most violent fighting of the Syrian civil war which has lasted for almost 14 years.

Entire residential neighborhoods and schools were reduced to rubble.

Independent monitoring groups have attributed much of the destruction to Russian airstrikes.

Moscow, which entered the conflict in 2015 to support the regime, insists it only targeted terrorists.

In 2011, Ahmed Taha was a civilian, working as a contractor and trader when he took up arms against the Assad regime following the brutal crackdown on peaceful protests.

He became one of the leaders of the armed opposition in Douma.

In 2018, after five brutal years of siege by the Syrian army, the rebels finally agreed to surrender in exchange for safe passage to Idlib.

Russian military police were deployed to Douma as guarantors of the agreement.

By then, more than 40 percent of the city had been destroyed and many people were hungry.

“We are back home despite Russia, despite the regime and all those who supported it,” says Mr. Taha.

He returned to Douma in December as part of the rebel offensive led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa.

For Mr Taha, there is no doubt that all remaining Russian troops must leave.

“For us, Russia is an enemy,” he said.

It’s a sentiment shared by many people we speak to.

On a street in Damascus, we meet Abu Hisham, from Hama, in central Syria.

He came to the capital with his friends to join the crowd celebrating the fall of the regime.

“The Russians came to this country and helped the tyrants, oppressors and invaders,” he said.

Even leaders of Syria’s Christian communities – which Russia has sworn to protect – say they have seen little help from Moscow.

In Bab Touma, the old Christian quarter of Damascus, we are treated to an interview with Ignace Ephrem II, the patriarch of the Syriac Orthodox Church.

“We haven’t had the experience of Russia or anyone else in the outside world protecting us,” he said. “The Russians were here for their own benefits and objectives. »

On a street outside, another Syrian Christian, Assad, is less diplomatic.

“When they came at first, they said, ‘We came here to help you.’ But instead of helping us, they destroyed Syria even more.

Ahmed Taha, Douma’s rebel commander, says he understands that the interim government and Sharaa – now Syria’s de facto ruler – want to think strategically.

The Syrian government of former President Bashar al-Assad granted Russia 49-year leases on two military bases on the Mediterranean coast.

After the regime collapsed in early December last year, it was Moscow that offered asylum to Assad and his family.

In an interview with BBC News international editor Jeremy Bowen, Ahmed al-Sharaa said he did not rule out allowing the Russians to stay, describing relations between the two countries as “strategic”.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quick to seize on these remarks.

“I should note that the head of the new Syrian government, Ahmed al-Sharaa, recently spoke to the BBC. In his interview, he described Syria’s ties with Russia as long-standing and strategic,” he said.

“We share this approach. We have a lot in common with our Syrian friends.”

Syria’s military cooperation with Moscow predates the Assad regime, said Turki al-Hassan, a defense analyst and retired Syrian army general.

“Since its creation, the Syrian army has been armed with weapons from the Eastern Bloc, particularly the Soviet Union, and now Russia. »

Virtually all the equipment he has today was produced by the Soviet Union or Russia, Hassan adds.

“The Syrian army, in its previous armament, is Russian. »

Between 1956 and 1991, Syria received from Moscow some 5,000 tanks, 1,200 fighter jets, 70 ships and many other systems and weapons worth more than $26 billion, according to Russian estimates.

More than half of it was unpaid when the Soviet Union collapsed, but in 2005 President Vladimir Putin canceled 73 percent of that debt.

Russia continued to supply weapons.

Now, rebuilding the military for a new Syrian government will require either a complete rearmament of the military or continued reliance on Russian supplies.

This will require some sort of relationship between the two countries, al-Hassan says.

For Russia, the Tartus Naval Base and Hmeimim Air Base are crucial hubs to support its continued presence in Africa, particularly in Libya, the Central African Republic, Mali and Burkina Faso.

And while ordinary Syrians hope for an end to further hostilities, some believe a continued Russian presence could help maintain peace in their country.

“We welcome the Russians here to keep our state strong and to keep our army strong,” said Syriac Orthodox Patriarch Ignatius Ephrem II.

“What can Russia offer the new regime?” And what can the new regime do in terms of political and military cooperation? »

It is the answers to these questions that will determine future relations, says Turki al-Hassan.