Hamas hostages: Doha, scene of a thousand and one negotiations…

Are we finally heading towards a ceasefire in Gaza? An agreement for the release of the hostages in three acts is being finalized between Israel and Hamas. The end of the war, and the start of new troubles for the Israelis.

Is it the right one this time? Over the past few days, a feeling of déjà vu seems to be emerging in the Qatari capital, Doha. The city has been the scene of intense negotiations between representatives of the Israeli government and Hamas, conducted indirectly and in coordination with emissaries from the outgoing and incoming US administrations, as well as the Qatari and Egyptian governments. These talks made it possible to bring points of view closer together and reduce differences between the two parties. The Qatari, Saudi and Israeli media are now relaying the idea that an agreement for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza would this time be truly within reach. According to published information, these discussions would have resulted in a global agreement which addresses three axes: ending the war, freeing the hostages and laying the foundations for the “day after”, in particular the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.

IDF withdrawal from populated areas

The first phase of this agreement provides for the release of 33 Israeli hostages, including three immediately, in exchange for a temporary ceasefire lasting 42 days. During this period, several Israeli units will withdraw from populated areas of Gaza, while a still unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners, including lifers, will be released. It remains unclear where these prisoners will be sent: Gaza, the West Bank or elsewhere. At the same time, humanitarian aid, including fuel supplies, will be significantly increased. During this truce, negotiations will continue to finalize the details of the second phase.

The second phase, also lasting 42 days, provides for the release of all detained Israeli soldiers in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, the number and identity of whom remains to be determined. At the same time, a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip will be carried out, including strategic areas such as the Netzarim corridors, in the center of the Strip, and Philadelphia, along the Egyptian border.

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Finally, the third and final phase provides for the exchange of the bodies of the dead from both sides after identification. It also includes a declaration of a lasting ceasefire, beyond the initial 84 days, and the launch of the reconstruction of Gaza. This vast project could extend over five years and would be supervised by the United Nations and international organizations. Crossing points with Egypt and Israel would be reopened, allowing the movement of people, goods and, above all, materials needed for reconstruction.

Hamas at the end of its strength

On several levels, factors are pushing both camps to accept this agreement. On the Hamas side, although its residual military capacity still allows it some actions, its potential has been drastically reduced. The massive destruction in Gaza and the growing suffering of the population have also seriously dented his popularity among residents, jeopardizing his future influence in the region. The ceasefire concluded by Hezbollah without a direct link to Gaza also dealt a blow to the credibility of Hamas, revealing the limits of its strategy of convergence of fronts.

On the Israeli side, the Trump administration is playing a key role in pushing Netanyahu’s government to show flexibility. Furthermore, Mr. Netanyahu, whose popularity had reached its lowest level after the attacks of October 7, 2023, has regained part of his support thanks to significant military successes, notably the elimination of major Hamas figures and of Hezbollah. However, this initial collaboration between MM. Trump and Netanyahu raise concerns for the latter. Pressure from Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, appears to have dampened Israeli expectations for unconditional alignment with Washington after January 20…

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The current situation represents a critical moment in the balance of power between the two parties. Hamas seeks to ensure its survival and rebuild its military and political structure. Israel, for its part, views the end of the war as an opportunity to focus on other regional priorities, including normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia and monitoring Iran’s nuclear program. Furthermore, it is essential to resolve the issue of the Houthis, who have inflicted significant losses on Egypt, and to monitor this situation closely, as the stability of the largest Arab country is at stake.

If Hamas clearly failed in its October 7 bet, Israel, despite its military and diplomatic gains supported by the United States, sees its successes weakened. The whole question lies in Israel’s ability to effectively and sustainably prevent the rearmament of Hamas, which will probably begin as soon as the ceasefire comes into force. Israel could impose strict control in the short term, but will it be able to maintain this regime over time? Does he have sufficient political credit with the United States to pursue this strategy? The bargaining chip already seems known: granting an increased role to the Palestinian Authority, whose agreement currently being finalized could allow a gradual return to Gaza. Turning military successes into lasting victory will require considerable political and diplomatic effort, while testing Israel’s current ruling majority.