In kyiv, the non-renewal of the agreement governing the passage of Russian gas from Ukraine to Europe will cost 800 million [d’euros]but is nonetheless presented as “a heavy defeat for Moscow”. The Kremlin, despite a shortfall of $6.5 billion [6,2 milliards d’euros] if it cannot find a customer to replace the European Union (EU), do not flinch, Russian gas currently only covers 5% of European needs.
And if the “hawks” Europeans, Poles and Baltics in the lead, are drinking whey, and Trump is rubbing his hands at the prospect of increased profits, Brussels calls for calm by signaling that the reserves are full for the winter and that other ways of supplies will replace the Russian tap. However, the markets are delivering a version of the facts which contradicts the message that the European institutions have been trying to convey for several years now: no, Ukraine’s interests do not always coincide with those of the European Union.
All you have to do is follow the evolution of prices. After a regular decline since the pandemic, the cost of gas – while remaining high compared to pre-Covid levels – has started to rise again since the Ukrainian announcement not to renew the agreement with Russia, to the point of cross the 50 euros per megawatt hour mark, a record that has not been equaled since October 2023.
The EU’s reassuring statements on energy supplies for this winter and the years to come are therefore not unfounded, of course, but do not ignore them.
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