January 12, 2025. 9:00 p.m. Saudi Arabia. Jeddah. King Abdullah Sports City.
Spanish Super Cup Final
Real Madrid – Barcelona
Absent: Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao – Marc-André ter Stegen, Marc Bernal
Real Madrid and Barcelona will face each other for the third consecutive time in the Saudi Super Cup final since the format change. In 2023, the Catalans, under Xavi, won convincingly 3-1, but last year Carlo Ancelotti’s side took revenge with a 4-1 victory, marked by a hat-trick from Vinicius Junior, and they currently hold the trophy. The Madrid team has won three of the last five editions. However, the “Blaugranas” lead the historical table with 14 victories, one more than the “Blancos”. It is worth noting that in the last five editions since the transition to the four-team finals format, the defending champion has yet to win the Spanish Super Cup.
This will also be the second El Clasico between Real and Barcelona this season. The first meeting at the Santiago Bernabeu at the end of October ended in a 4-0 victory for Hans-Dieter Flick’s team. All the goals came in the second half, with Robert Lewandowski scoring twice, while Rafinha and Lamine Yamal added a goal each. As well as this embarrassing result for the ‘Blancos’, they were hampered by frequent offside calls, with Kylian Mbappe flagged at least seven times, leading to three goals being ruled out. When he managed to stay in the game, he couldn’t beat Inaki Pena.
Real Madrid
Carlo Ancelotti’s side started 2025 with a tough 2-1 away win against Valencia, playing with a reduced squad. This match was postponed to the 12th day of La Liga. The visitors lost the first half against the “Bats”, but after the break they showed a clear improvement in quality and only started scoring after Vinicius Junior’s red card in the 79th minute . Veteran Luka Modric, who came on shortly before, made history by becoming Real Madrid’s oldest goalscorer, surpassing the legendary Ferenc Puskas. The second goal came in added time thanks to Jude Bellingham, who had missed a penalty earlier in the match.
Last weekend, the ‘Blancos’ easily crushed Deportivo Minera 5-0 in the Copa del Rey with a team largely made up of substitutes. During the week, they logically won 3-0 against Mallorca in the semi-final of the Spanish Super Cup. However, this result should not be misleading, as the islanders put up a good battle against the favorites and threatened on several occasions. Real opened the scoring midway through the second half when Jude Bellingham slipped the ball into Dominik Greif’s net during a prolonged attack. An own goal from Martin Valienta in the 90+2 minute and a goal from Rodrygo in the 90+5 minute, when Mallorca stopped resisting, closed the score.
Barcelona
The Catalans also started the calendar year with victories. First, Hans-Dieter Flick’s team crushed Barbastro away in the Copa del Rey – 4-0. Robert Lewandowski scored twice, with Eric Garcia (the opening goal) and Pablo Torre also finding the net. Recently, the “Blaugranas” beat Athletic Bilbao 2-0 in the semi-final of the Spanish Super Cup. Lewandowski didn’t score and was relatively quiet during the match, but other players stood out. Gavi opened the scoring in the 17th minute, scoring his first goal after a serious knee injury, while Lamine Yamal added a splendid goal early in the second half.
During the week, Gavi, Yamal, along with Pedri, Kubarsi, Casado and Ferran reportedly threatened not to represent the national team unless the licenses of Dani Olmo and Pau Victor were extended. This was part of the pressure and blackmail tactics employed by the Catalans against the Spanish football authorities. The Spanish Higher Council of Sport, completely ignoring the financial fair play regulations and economic rules of La Liga, temporarily authorized the registration of the two players, thus directly intervening in the affairs by the Spanish government. How FIFA and UEFA will respond to the Spanish government’s direct involvement in football remains to be seen.
As all this unfolds, almost all La Liga clubs have joined forces against the situation, except Real Madrid, which has sparked criticism. Florentino Perez remains silent as Barcelona’s presence is crucial to their Super League ambitions, choosing not to spoil relations with his rival. However, Perez did not shy away from the so-called Negreira affair, where Real Madrid are one of Barcelona’s main accusers. This scandal is escalating considerably, mainly due to a wily and populist club president who spends lavishly and surrounds himself with cronies, while neglecting the need to restore the club’s financial health, which has been in decline for a long time.
Real Madrid – Barcelona : Expected compositions
Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao will definitely be missing for Real. Meanwhile, Barcelona will still be without Marc-André ter Stegen and Marc Bernal. Everything else seems ready to fight for the Spanish Super Cup. Luka Modric is expected to return to the starting XI, while injuries to Aurelien Tchouameni and Jude Bellingham have proven to be minor. For Barcelona, Inaki Pena is likely back in goal after missing the semi-final due to a late arrival at the team rally. I also expect Dani Olmo in the starting lineup. Did the Catalans ignore the rules and reputation for decency for a reason?
Real Madrid – Barcelona : Author’s prediction
As Carlo Ancelotti rightly pointed out during the press conference, El Clasico is always an unpredictable encounter. Real’s previous 4-0 defeat to Barcelona a few months ago carries little weight, with each match presenting a new challenge for both teams. The ‘Blancos’ can always be considered favorites in finals, but that is not the case here. In addition, I remind you that the reigning champion has not yet won the Spanish Super Cup since the change of format. Therefore, both teams have roughly equal chances of lifting the trophy.
It is possible that the fate of the trophy will ultimately be decided by a penalty shootout, which will take place in the event of a draw immediately after the final whistle, because this year there will be no extra time in the Super Cup. A draw in regular time is a completely plausible outcome, after which the game will turn into a battle of nerves and emotions. I’m waiting for a share of goals and for Kylian Mbappe to finally score a legitimate goal against Barcelona this time. For the Catalans, their top scorer Robert Lewandowski could also be among the scorers. I suggest betting on these two events, avoiding trying to predict the winner of the El Clasico.
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