Adina Revol: The invasion of Ukraine triggered the movement to break away from Russian gas in Europe. A historic break since the European Union (EU) was 45% dependent on Moscow.
While Vladimir Putin launches his “special operation” in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, European heads of state decide, from March 10 and 11, in Versailles, as part of a summit chaired by Emmanuel Macron, to “ detoxify” Russian gas by 2027.
This major turning point was particularly significant for Germany, historically very dependent on Russia.
In May 2022, the RePowerEU plan makes this ambition a reality, allowing the EU to avoid any gas shortage, despite the cut in deliveries ordered by Vladimir Putin, unlike previous crises in 2006 and 2009.
Adina Revol: Absolutely. Vladimir Putin has flooded the European Union with Russian gas at very competitive prices to prevent any attempt at diversification.
Germany, for example, has built a significant part of its competitiveness on this cheap Russian gas. In addition, Vladimir Putin has imagined a strategy of “gas pipelines of discord” to bypass Ukraine, once the centerpiece of Russian gas transit with 80% of flows.
Nord Stream 1 and 2, linking Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, are the most prominent symbols of European division, while South Stream, which targeted Austria and Italy, never came to fruition.
With a captive market and divided countries, Putin turns off the tap between April and September 2022, illustrating the use of gas as a geopolitical weapon.
In Russia, he also uses energy as a political weapon by ousting oligarchs such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
The objective? Take back control of the energy sector, place its men in key positions, like Alexeï Miller at the head of Gazprom, in office since 2001.
Le Revenu: Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder played a murky role…
Adina Revol: Gerhard Schröder, Social Democratic chancellor between 1998 and 2005, maintained close ties with Vladimir Putin and quickly moved closer to Russian interests after leaving power.
Appointed chairman of the supervisory board of Nord Stream, he was quickly seen as using his political influence to promote Russian interests in Germany.
In 2017, he joined the board of directors of Rosneft, the Russian oil giant. Under pressure after the invasion of Ukraine, he ended up resigning from his mandates.
His alignment with Vladimir Putin, tested by the facts, is a major geopolitical error, but it is part of the continuity of Ostpolitik initiated by Willy Brandt in the 1970s.
This choice, justified by an interdependence seen as symmetrical between Germany and Russia, has transformed into vulnerability.
His journey
Professor at Sciences Po
- Doctor in political science, Adina Revol is an affiliated professor at Sciences Po Paris. She was spokesperson for the European Commission in France from 2021 to 2024.
- Since joining the European Commission in 2011, she has been engaged in defining and implementing strategic policies, such as the Green Deal and the European Recovery Plan.
Le Revenu: What does the European plan to detoxify Russian gas consist of?
Adina Revol: The RePowerEU plan has two parts. First of all, a massive strategic diversification of supplies with the import of American liquefied natural gas (LNG) and gas from Norway, and a strengthening of import infrastructure, particularly in Germany.
Second component, the acceleration of the Green Deal, launched in 2019 with a marked ambition for renewable energies, such as solar and wind power on the high seas and energy sobriety, that is to say a sustainable reduction in demand .
Between 2022 and 2023, the EU managed to reduce gas demand by 20%. A cyclical decline due to the surge in energy prices, but also a structural one.
It is based on a massive thermal renovation plan for buildings, financed by the post-Covid NextGenerationEU recovery plan.
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According to the European Commission, the cost of the break with Russian gas is estimated at 210 billion euros by 2027.
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Le Revenu: What could be the cost for the European Union of the emancipation of Russian gas?
Adina Revol: According to the European Commission, the cost of the break with Russian gas is estimated at 210 billion euros by 2027. This covers infrastructure, investment in renewables and energy efficiency. Funding is shared between the EU, Member States and the private sector.
Le Revenu: The war in Ukraine would also have, according to you, brought about a further step towards European unity?
Adina Revol: Energy has been at the heart of the European political project since its creation, with the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, then the Euratom Community in 1957, which aimed for technological independence through common nuclear research.
But, little by little, energy has become the forgotten part of European integration. As we have seen, Member States were very divided regarding the “Russian factor”.
A first step forward came in 2014, with a common energy budget, which enabled the construction of around a hundred strategic gas pipelines and LNG terminals. The invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point. Solidarity replaces division.
Russia made the Energy Union possible even though it had prevented it for decades! The Europeans even agree on grouped gas purchases at Union level.
Le Revenu: When it comes to nuclear matters, does the division between Member States not remain?
Adina Revol: That’s correct. Each State remains responsible for its energy mix and differences remain: thirteen countries, including France, are in favor of nuclear power, while others are more reluctant, or even very reluctant.
However, the war in Ukraine changed the situation as new programs were launched in countries such as Poland, Czechia and Bulgaria.
In addition, the industrial plan which accompanies the Green Deal lists nuclear power among the “Net Zero” technologies benefiting from administrative simplifications and financing.
Finally, the European Commission has just approved the deployment of small reactors. Seven pilot projects, including that of EDF, have just been selected to benefit from European funding.
A “wall of investments”
Income: Even better integrated, what weight can the EU have against the United States and China?
Adina Revol: Energy is the EU’s “new frontier”, but a fossil dependence on Russia must not be replaced by a dependence on American LNG or Chinese green technologies (solar panels, batteries and critical raw materials).
This observation raises the question of a European industrial policy capable of supporting this historic transition. As Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank between 2011 and 2019, pointed out, it will require a real “wall of investments”.
This essential challenge will, we hope, accelerate the creation of a European capital market, essential to finance this transformation. But the “new frontier” is also social. The price of energy is essential for purchasing power.
However, each time there have been tax increases, there has been social anger. It is essential that this transition be accepted by citizens.
In the short term, it is urgent to debate a reduction in electricity taxes, which represent 40% of the total cost for individuals, on average, in Europe.
In the long term, we must increase our efforts on innovation, particularly in key technologies, such as hydrogen.
Break with Russia, Adina Revolution176 pages, €19.90, Odile Jacob
Comments collected by Jannick Alimi
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