Dynamics are changing in North Africa as the region navigates a calmer political year in 2025, presenting a delicate balance between progress and lingering challenges shaping the region’s future.
After a busy 2024, marked by presidential elections in Algeria and Tunisia, the year 2025 should be politically calmer, since Egyptians will be the only ones to go to the polls to elect a new parliament. However, challenges such as climate-related issues and European migratory pressure mean that governments will not remain inactive, AfricaReport predicts.
After the agreements with Tunisia and Egypt, the European Union, which increasingly seeks to outsource migration management beyond its borders, will try to convince Rabat to sign a memorandum, thus completing its “defense” Mediterranean.
North African capitals will also be closely monitoring Libya this year and potential destabilizing influences from Lebanon and Syria. The war in Sudan, the Palestinian question and the possible resumption of normalization processes with Israel will likely remain key topics in the region. This is particularly true in the context of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Tunisia seen through the prism of migration
After nine years of negotiations, the 27 EU countries adopted the Pact on Migration and Asylum in 2024 to harmonize and improve the response to irregular immigration across the Union. However, the pact does not ease the pressure on countries of first entry, such as Italy, where in September 2023 around 11,000 migrants arrived by boat on the island of Lampedusa in a week, most of them ‘among them having set sail from Tunisia.
Right-wing Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has taken a radical stance of striking deals with African countries to stem the flow of migrants. Meloni’s discussions with Tunisia resulted in a memorandum of understanding for a comprehensive partnership in 2023, in which Europe would send funds to train and equip the coast guard, and invest in jobs and education for dissuade migrants from making dangerous crossings. This protocol builds on an agreement Italy reached with Libya in 2017. The formula is intended to serve as a replicable framework for countries of origin. After Tunisia, Libya and Egypt also signed similar memoranda with the EU, but negotiated more favorable financial terms.
Building on this momentum, Meloni pledged to include the memorandum in the Mattei Plan, Italy’s effort to stabilize populations by strengthening development aid on the ground in Africa. This approach, for which Italy plans to spend $5.7 billion, is similar to the EU’s Global Gateway program, which allocates $156 billion to the continent.
-However, conflicts in the Middle East portend a resurgence in migratory flows. Among the nine migratory routes converging towards Europe, those in the eastern and central Mediterranean are the most traveled.
Meloni also attempted to outsource the reception of irregular migrants by creating detention centers in Albania for an investment of $625 million over five years. However, as in the case of the United Kingdom, which was prohibited from deporting Rwandans, Italian judges have vetoed a process which they consider to be contrary to the right to asylum and the principle of non- repression.
Libya/Tunisia: Broken borders
The Ras Jedir border post is a major point of friction between Libya and Tunisia. In May 2024, a disagreement between Zuwara’s Amazigh militia and Government of National Unity forces led to its closure, forcing countries to consider alternative methods for cross-border transport of goods.
The stakes are high for Tunisia, which exports $900 million worth of goods to Libya each year. Security forces on both sides are working to eradicate contraband and secure the region. The crossing point is used by flows of irregular migrants to reach Tunisia towards Europe. Tunisia will have to work with Tripoli and Benghazi without getting drawn into their disputes.
After having already disappointed Americans of Arab origin who thought Trump supported them, will the president-elect manage to achieve the impossible: finalize the “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians while extending the Abraham Accords? of 2020? This is far from certain.
Algeria takes a dim view of the appointment of Rubio, who has been very critical of the current regime in Algiers. Tunisia and the United States are mutually indifferent, while Rabat should rejoice in Trump’s victory. Washington’s recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara in 2020 led several Western capitals to follow its example.
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