Moscow cut gas supplies to the pro-Russian separatist territory of Moldova on January 1. For Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean, the Kremlin’s objective is to destabilize the pro-European government in place in Chisinau.
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Moldova accuses the Kremlin of orchestrating a security crisis in the country. Since January 1, Transnistria, a pro-Russian separatist territory in Moldova, has no longer received gas from Russia which transited through Ukraine, and made the country a collateral victim of the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv.
This supply disruption is a disaster for 450 000 habitants in the region who no longer have heating or hot water. Local authorities have also ordered power cuts.
“People don’t have electricity four hours a day, they don’t have heating and, above all, they don’t have access to gas. And from today there are even interruptions in water supply“, underlines Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean.
The Chisinau government offered help, rejected by Transnistrian officials. Moldovan Prime Minister accuses Russia of provoking a humanitarian crisis in the region with the aim of destabilizing the pro-European government. Legislative elections are planned for this fall in this republic located between Ukraine and Romania.
Initially, Moldova is not affected as much by this supply disruption as Transnistria. The country has managed to free itself from Russian gas since 2022, following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. In addition, he can count on the support of Romania.
Transnistria, on the other hand, remains very dependent on Russian hydrocarbons. This resource supplies the Cuciurgan power station, located in the separatist territory, but which produces 70% of the country’s electricity. The danger for Chisinau is to subsequently experience power cuts.
Moscow could be tempted to accuse the Moldovan government but also Kyiv of being responsible for this situation. Russia is in fact not the only party involved in the supply disruption. Ukraine refused to renew the contract signed in 2019 with the Russian authorities concerning the transit of gas on its territory.
With the Moldovan vote in its sights, the Kremlin could launch a disinformation campaign by pointing the finger at Chisinau and Kyiv as responsible for this situation. However, this approach carries risks because economic activity in Transnistria is heavily dependent on Russian hydrocarbons. However, if employment and tax revenues are threatened, it is the local authorities of the territory who could falter during the election in 2025.
For the Moldovan Prime Minister, the Kremlin wants to see a pro-Russian government in the future which will allow it to strengthen its military presence in Transnistria. Moscow has approximately 1,500 soldiers in the region bordering Ukraine.
The European Union is carefully observing the situation. Moldova is candidate for EU membershipwhich also represents its first financial support. The European Commission also explained on Monday that it was working with the European energy sector in order to be able to provide sufficient electricity to Chisinau if necessary. The institution also invites member states to demonstrate energy solidarity with Moldova.
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