BTC rally will face several obstacles

As the year begins, the crypto trading environment is showing mixed trends following the December FOMC meeting and the holiday season. So, what can we really expect from Bitcoin in 2025?

Bitcoin rally threatened despite Trump’s support?

According to 10x Research, the first quarter of 2025 may not prove as fruitful for crypto as late January to March 2024 or late September to mid-December last year.

First, the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on January 15 is a key event to watch. A pullback in the price of Bitcoin and the entire crypto should be expected before the CPI data is released, although the market could rally again if the results are favorable.

“A favorable inflation reading could reignite optimism, fueling a rally leading up to Trump’s inauguration scheduled for January 20,” wrote 10x founder Mark Thielen.

However, the momentum generated by such a rally could be short-lived. Mark Thielen added that the market will likely experience a pullback before the FOMC meeting on January 29. According to his forecast for Bitcoin in 2025, the price will be between $96,000 and $98,000 by the end of January.

Bitcoin recorded several consecutive new all-time highs (ATH) in the fourth quarter of 2024, following the Fed’s 25 basis point interest rate cuts. The rate cuts in September were also very bullish for the crypto market.

Bitcoin dominance persists into 2025

Another factor to consider when discussing the BTC price trajectory in 2025 is the Bitcoin dominance indicator. According to the 10x report, from January 2024 to mid-November, Bitcoin’s market share soared from 50% to 60%, putting considerable pressure on altcoins.

So, as Bitcoin’s dominance increased, many altcoins struggled to gain traction; as a result, it has been difficult for investors to enjoy substantial returns outside of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s dominance, however, briefly dropped to 53% over a three-week period, raising hopes for an altcoin season. However, this decline was short-lived, and Bitcoin’s dominance quickly rebounded to almost 58%, stabilizing around 55% by the end of 2024. This consolidation around the 55% level tells us that BTC remains firmly in control of the crypto market as a whole.

For investors, this highlights the importance of closely monitoring Bitcoin’s dominance. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance was around 57% while the price was trading at $99,225.

These Bitcoin projections from 10xResearch come as CoinShares head of research James Butterfill predicted last week that Bitcoin could potentially see spikes to $150,000 and corrections to $80,000 in 2025.

Likewise, Bitwise asset management projected that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of the year.

Moral of the story: Bitcoin is climbing, but at its own pace.