Food prices fell slightly around the world in 2024

Global food prices have fallen by 15% since 2022, but the impact on daily life is limited. Energy and logistics costs are increasing, while certain commodities like chocolate and butter continue to rise. However, declines of 3 to 5% are expected in the coming months.

Food prices fell slightly around the world in 2024. Overall, they decreased by exactly 2.1% compared to 2023, and even by 15% compared to the historic peak of 2022, according to the index calculated by the FAO, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

This development is itself the result of opposing trends. Certain products continued to increase such as vegetable oils (+9%), dairy products (5%, notably driven by butter prices) and meats (3%). But the products which pulled the average downward were mainly cereals and sugar, which showed price drops of more than 13% over the year.

How are these declines explained?

These declines are explained by less sustained demand (wheat, rice) and more abundant supply. In the case of wheat, for example, there were very good harvests in Australia and Argentina. The drop in sugar prices is mainly due to “record exports” from Brazil during the year and a positive outlook for global supply for the 2024/25 campaign.

But then, how will these reductions impact our everyday products? Today, the gap is impressive: -15% on raw products in two years, while labels are still up 10%.

Several explanations: the share of raw products is low and other production costs have increased: energy, logistics, labor. And then there are the margins that manufacturers have reconstituted. The lag in the repercussions. But the good news is that the drops are coming and we saw this in the fourth quarter of 2024 with the drop in the price of poultry and frozen meals in particular. There should therefore be drops of 3 to 5% in the coming months on most products.