No one knows in what new theater of operations the world's fury will be unleashed in 2025. A large part of the unknown hangs over international relations, for which the principle of uncertainty seems to have become the golden rule. Over the past three years, we have witnessed several cascading upheavals – all unforeseen. The year 2025 therefore imposes on us a duty of humility, but also an obligation of permanent alert in the face of reversals in situations.
Towards the end of the conflict in Ukraine?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 (almost three years ago) was expected to make kyiv easy prey; quite the opposite happened, Ukraine inflicted serious setbacks on Vladimir Putin. Then the sudden increase in its war effort gave Russia control again: in 2024, over the months, we had to note the decline of Ukrainian forces, with an exception of resilience, in a third phase of the conflict, in Kursk , in Russian territory, where the fighting is also raging. What will be the final step before the possible negotiation of a ceasefire, for which the entire international community is pushing? In 2025, without hoping for an outcome (far from it), we can at least expect the beginnings of a necessarily transactional phase of the conflict.
In the Middle East, the massacre of October 7, 2023 gave way to a terrestrial earthquake whose shock wave is no longer stopping; the effects of Israel's response far exceed the annihilation of the Gaza Strip. The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad must be taken into account as an event inseparable from the very severe blows inflicted by Israel on Iran. As a result, Russia finds itself in great difficulty in Syria, where, precisely, Vladimir Putin obtained his most significant international gain from the involvement of the Russian air force in September 2015.
Iran and Russia KO in Syria
Iran and Russia were almost simultaneously knocked out by Syrian Islamist rebels. This is a double first: for the mullahs, who are experiencing the collapse of their strategy of influence as far as the Mediterranean, and, for the Russians, who are on the verge of losing the exclusive Syrian military establishment thanks to which they supplied, as far as the Sahel, their troops (regular or irregular) responsible for destabilizing Westerners (especially the French) in Africa.
But this was only made possible by the obvious involvement of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Turkey. Which took advantage of the elimination of Iran's direct satellites (Hamas and Hezbollah) by Israeli forces to enter the scene and support the jihadists in a very decisive manner in their conquest of Damascus. The ease with which Russia and Iran were ejected from the Syrian scene (after having clearly abandoned Bashar al-Assad to his fate) did not fail to astonish even Turkish strategists. However, for the Syrian people, the jubilation of liberation is accompanied by the worry of seeing the new masters of the country, who were affiliated with Al-Qaeda until recently, establishing a form of sharia which, even watered down, remains the expression of oppression by religion.
-This whole sequence testifies to considerable strategic modifications, which prove to be uncontrollable. Another example, North Korea, which hoped for so many rewards from Russia in gratitude for the 12,000 men sent to fight the Ukrainians on the front line, now sees its elite forces being decimated like a ball trap. What will be the next step?
Trump quietly, Europe broken down
So many subjects that the United States is observing closely, as the installation of the new Trump administration approaches. Cautiously, the 47th American president no longer promises a spectacular achievement “in 24 hours,” as he did over Ukraine. He is moving forward at a slower pace, realizing that with Russia's unexpected backlash in the Middle East, America is finding room for action – again unexpected.
But the most pressing question concerns Europe, whose two traditional “engines”, Paris and Berlin, seem seriously broken down. Cohabitation on one side, coalition on the other, breakthrough of the nationalist right in both cases, the coming months will be decisive in getting out of the rut – unless the breakdown continues. As we enter 2025, we are faced with a lot of questions – and we see very few answers emerging. All the more reason to deepen and strengthen the values that underpin our democracies in the face of world disorder.
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