The characteristics of this stranglehold on Europe’s largest economy in the run-up to the early legislative elections on February 23 – triggered in November by the breakup of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition – are distinct. “Hybrid” and focused on crucial German military support for Ukraine on the Russian side, the attempts at influence from the United States are coming out into the open. They relate more to migration or economic issues.
But all converge to favor one party: the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) movement, growing at more than 20%, according to an Insa poll published by Bild on Tuesday.
Musk’s support for the far right
The repeated public support for the AfD provided over the past ten days by Elon Musk, the richest man in the world close to Donald Trump, has created astonishment in Berlin. The AfD admitted in “Spiegel” on Tuesday that it was in regular contact with the American businessman’s team.
In his New Year’s message on Tuesday, Olaf Scholz reacted by assuring that only German citizens, and not “the owners of social networks”, will decide the outcome of the vote.
Monday evening, Elon Musk again promised on his X platform to the AfD an “epic victory” on February 23 and described the German head of state, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who had denounced his interference, as a “tyrant”. “Elon Musk is doing exactly the same thing as Vladimir Putin,” raged the chairman of the chancellor’s social-democratic party, Lars Klingbeil, in the Funke group newspapers. “Both want to influence our elections and specifically support the enemy of democracy that is the AfD, they want Germany to be weakened,” he thundered.
Even the conservative opposition, leading the polls at around 32% and traditionally very Atlanticist, is alarmed. “I do not remember that, in the history of Western democracies, there has been a comparable case of interference in the electoral campaign of a friendly country,” denounced its leader Friedrich Merz, favorite to be the next chancellor.
-Germany towards a “hangover”?
In particular, a pro-AfD column by Elon Musk published on Saturday by the daily Welt, in the wake of a series of tweets. It led to the resignation of a newspaper manager. Berlin political scientist Hajo Funke describes this publication as a “scandal”, the Springer group, owner of Welt, having in his eyes “broken with its post-war tradition” of fighting against the extreme right.
The awakening is brutal for many Germans who have been fiercely attached to the transatlantic link since 1945, and “who still think that the United States is a model of democracy”, judges Hajo Funke. “Germany is preparing for a New Year’s hangover, but without the party that normally precedes it,” quips Michael Bröning, political scientist at the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. With Musk’s outbursts, “it appears that the Trump team is reciprocating Germany’s openly expressed anti-Trump rhetoric during the US election campaign.”
Russian disinformation
At the same time, German domestic intelligence has just announced the creation of a “task force” to counter “foreign interference” with a view to the February election. In his sights this time: Moscow. “Given its war of aggression against Ukraine, Russia probably has the greatest interest in influencing the election in its favor,” the Office for the Protection of the Constitution wrote in a report.
He mentions disinformation campaigns on social networks, propaganda actions and cyberattacks with a view to “weakening confidence in democracy” and “undermining” the country’s connection to NATO and the EU, including ‘AfD would like to leave.
Will these interferences ultimately benefit this anti-system party, at a time when the country of 83 million inhabitants is facing a serious industrial crisis?
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