In October 2023, after having requested them for a long time, the Ukrainian forces finally obtained MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles from the United States. [Army TACtical Missile System] capable of being launched by the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System [HIMARS]. However, they were not then authorized to use them to target military objectives located on Russian territory. For Washington, it was a matter of avoiding any “escalation” with Moscow.
A year later, when North Korea had just sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia, American President Joe Biden lifted all restrictions on the use of ATACMS. Then, the United Kingdom did the same with the Storm Shadow air-to-ground cruise missiles, as did France with the SCALP EG [mais de manière implicite].
For kyiv, these long-range weapons [au moins 300 km] were to make it possible to strike logistical depots as well as airfields used by Russian forces to carry out their operations in Ukraine as well as arms factories.
In response, Russia staged a show of force by firing a 9M729-Orechnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnieper. However, Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian territory with the long-range missiles at their disposal. According to Moscow, 31 ATACMS and 14 Storm Shadows were used.
Chairman of the NATO military committee, Admiral Rob Bauer recently estimated that these strikes had “seriously affected a certain number” of depots and factories in Russia…
The Russians “don’t like ATACMS hitting their country. These missiles are effective. They limit their ability to fight effectively on the front and that is what we want,” Admiral Bauer said. However, he added, “the question is whether it is enough to win.”
Because, in fact, the course of the war has not changed. Furthermore, apart from the firing of the Oreshnik missile on the Dnieper, the much-feared military escalation did not take place. As the New York Times points out, the case of ATACMS is “comparable to what happened with other Western weapons”, namely that Ukraine only obtained them after losing ground.
In any case, if the ATACMS and SCALP EG / Storm Shadow were effective, NATO officials told the American newspaper that the Ukrainian forces could have been “more judicious” in the choice of targets due to the limited number of missiles that had been delivered to them.
Result: the stock of ATACMS missiles is now practically exhausted. When President Biden authorized kyiv to use them against targets of military interest located in Russia, the Ukrainian forces only had around fifty of the 500 received. Regarding Storm Shadows, the United Kingdom has already warned that it does not have many left to supply.
Also, with the upcoming changes in US foreign policy, with the return of Donald Trump to the White House, Ukrainian forces must save their remaining ATACMS missiles. “We need to preserve these capabilities and use them judiciously and very intelligently,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies. [qui relève du gouvernement ukrainien, ndlr]au New York Times.
Note that, during an interview with the Journal du Dimanche in November, the French Minister of the Armed Forces, Sébastien Lecornu, said he had signed “a new transfer of around ten SCALP missiles” to Ukraine, in addition of the forty that have already been provided.
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