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Donald Trump, the covers and the shutdown

First came the prestigious Time magazine. Then, bit by bit, numerous newspaper and periodical publications confirmed the choice: Donald Trump is without a doubt the 'person of the year': the individual who, “for better or worse, has done the most to shape the world and headlines over the past 12 months,” Time editor Sam Jacobs explained in his letter to readers. The choice is logical: the tycoon was the protagonist of a comeback “of historic proportions” and of having “led a once-in-a-generation political realignment” which reshaped the American presidency and “modified the role of the United States in the world” observes Time . Only once, with Grover Cleveland in 1892, had a U.S. president served two non-consecutive terms. But the comparison is not appropriate: When Trump left the White House on January 20, 2021, few in his entourage still wanted to be seen with him. Two weeks earlier, a crowd of his supporters had stormed Capitol Hill, for the first time since it was burned down by British troops in 1812. Mitch McConnell, the then Republican leader in the Senate, had called him “a despicable human being”. In the aftermath, Trump became a pariah: “Mar-a-Lago was like East Berlin” Steve Bannon, Trump's strategist during his first year in office, would have recalled. “We were a band of pirates. Everyone had abandoned us.” If that moment marked the lowest point of Trump's parable, today his imminent return to the White House, after countless legal vicissitudes and two assassination attempts, coincides with his apotheosis.

Flurry of executive orders?

In an interview with Time, accompanied by an equally long fact-checking of his answers – the tycoon illustrated some of his plans for the second term. At home, he promised a new era of radical 'deregulation' and tax cuts. Trump also promised a decisive turnaround in the economy: “We will bring back many jobs. We're going to bring back record numbers of jobs and we're going to do it through good tax policy and, you know, using some basic business intelligence. But we will bring back a record number of jobs. Other countries will no longer be able to steal our companies.” And, first, he announced a flurry of executive orders to begin, immediately, to change the face of America. These include an amnesty for the January 6 rioters and others to begin deporting illegal migrants in the country. “We have criminals coming into our states without anyone trying to stop them. We have people coming in at record levels and numbers that we've never seen before. And I will only do what the law allows, but I will go to the maximum level of what the law allows.” The tycoon's proclamations about a crackdown on immigration have mobilized migrants and for days thousands of people have been pressing at the American border to enter the country before his inauguration.

What will Trump 2.0 mean for the world?

At his first inauguration in 2017, Trump spoke of the “American carnage” caused by globalization and countries that, like China, had circumvented the rules to grow their economies to the detriment of the USA. In his previous mandate, these motivations had been at the origin of the tariff policy and the threats to abandon NATO due to contributions not sufficiently covered by some of its European members. This time too, Trump makes similar threats but in a more complicated international scenario than that of 2016. The president-elect promised to resolve the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours” but without giving indications on what he will do in practice. And if in the Middle East, the de facto theater of a regional war, Trump will try to close the ongoing escalation and relaunch the framework of the Abraham Accords, in Asia his strategy will remain based to the containment of China and strengthening ties with US allies in the region. On the trade front, new frictions are expected with Beijing and the EU, with a possible return to protectionist policies made up of duties and tariffs. “It is impossible to predict what a man will do without a foreign policy philosophy: Trump is purely transactional,” said John Bolton, his former national security adviser in the first 18 months of his first term. “The big difference is that this time he will be surrounded by people who say yes.”

Shutdown and wall to wall?

As per tradition, after being chosen as Time's 'person of the year', Donald Trump presided the bag opening ceremony in New York ringing the bell that signals the start of trading. The recognition is the icing on the cake for the tycoon, crowning his unexpected return to power after the electoral defeat four years ago. Let it be a certificate

deserved, it is also explained by the fact that the tycoon manages to direct events even before taking office in the White House: today the US House rejected the anti-shutdown plan on which the Republicans had reached an agreement yesterday. The agreement was supported by the tycoon – and foresees it slip of the two-year debt ceiling. A provision that Democrats cannot support because it would mean losing an important weapon against the next administration's expected tax cut, which is destined to increase the debt. The risk is that it will go off by midnight tonight the feared government paralysis. “If there is a government shutdown, let it start now, under the Biden administration, not after January 20, under TRUMP – he wrote on social media – This is a problem that Biden must solve, but if Republicans can help solve it , they will!”. As extraordinary as it is, therefore, Trump's return seems destined to begin with a wall against a wall and a turmoil that many had foreseen, but which few would have imagined would begin even before his oath.

The comment

By Gianluca Pastori, ISPI Senior Associate Research Fellow

“Donald Trump's choice as Person of the Year 2024 was explained by Sam Jacobs, editor in chief Of Time noting how – since his candidacy in 2015 – 'perhaps no individual has played a more important role… in changing the course of politics and history'. In recent years, Trump has catalyzed and fueled the unease of the United States which appears less and less capable of managing the transformation processes that are going through them and the dynamics of an international system that they are increasingly struggling to govern. His victory in the last elections, despite the numerous and serious legal problems, is a confirmation – as well as of the 'shortness of breath' of the Democratic Party, currently grappling with a long and painful process of renewal – of the effectiveness with which The Donald has was able to build his base of consensus, give voice to his moods and reshape the reality of the old Republican Party 'in his image and likeness'. It is also the confirmation of how the relationship of the United States with its allies and interlocutors – first of all the European ones – has changed today and how this change makes it necessary to look at Washington and its policies through different lenses than those used so far.”

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