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progress after 14 months of conflict

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After months of impasse, negotiations between Israel and Hamas seem to be progressing towards ceasefire to end a war that has lasted 14 months. Diplomatic efforts, led by the United States, Qatar and Egypt, have resumed with renewed intensity, creating a climate of cautious optimism.

Concessions on both sides

Hamas leaders have announced their desire to demonstrate “flexibility” regarding the timetable for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. Israel, for its part, recognized through its Minister of Defense, Israel Katzthat an agreement was now “closer than ever”. However, crucial details remain to be finalized, temper the stakeholders.

A favorable context for negotiations

Several factors explain this change in dynamics. Israel inflicted significant losses on Hamas, weakening its structure and its allies. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, another key Iranian-backed player, reached a separate ceasefire with Israel, further isolating the group. The regional situation has been exacerbated by major setbacks for Iran, notably with the gradual collapse of the Syrian regime Bachar el-Assada long-time ally.

On the international level, the outgoing administration of Joe Biden and the one to come Donald Trump have a common goal: finalize the agreement before the US presidential inauguration on January 20.

The main points of the agreement

According to Egyptian and Hamas officials, the agreement would be progressive and would be structured around several phases:

1. A preliminary ceasefire

This initial phase would last 6 to 8 weeks. Hamas would commit to freeing around 30 hostagesdont 3 to 4 American-Israeli citizens. These hostages represent approximately half of the supposed captives still alive.

In exchange, Israel would release several hundred Palestinian prisonersamong which 100 prisoners serving long sentences for their involvement in deadly attacks.

2. An increase in humanitarian aid

The Gaza Strip faces a unprecedented humanitarian crisis. Environ 90% of the 2.3 million inhabitants have been moved, sometimes several times. Humanitarian organizations are reporting a widespread famine in the territory.

The agreement provides for a massive increase in aid with in particular the reopening of the Rafah crossing pointclosed since the Israeli ground incursion in May. This crossing, crucial for Gazans seeking to leave the territory, is currently inaccessible.

The mediators are considering a return to2005 agreement who entrusted the management of Rafah to thePalestinian Authoritywith the supervision of the European Union. This arrangement ended when Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007.

3. Partial withdrawal of Israeli troops

During the first phase, Israeli troops would withdraw from some Palestinian population centersallowing some of the residents to return home. However, Israeli forces would remain stationed along the Philadelphia corridora strategic area on the border between Gaza and Egypt.

4. Towards a lasting end to the conflict

The initial ceasefire would serve as a springboard for negotiations aimed at bringing a lasting end to the war. The discussions would focus on a total withdrawal of Israeli troopsthe liberation of remaining hostages and the return of bodies held by Hamas.

Once these steps have been completed, the parties will address the political and economic issues essential for the future of Gaza, such as:

  • The territorial governance post-conflict,
  • THE plans de reconstruction to cope with massive destruction.

A fragile hope for peace

These negotiations take place in an extremely tense climate. The success of the agreement will depend on the ability of the mediators to overcome the many political and security obstacles. The peace process, often compromised by divergent interests and the complexity of regional alliances, remains fragile.

The renewed commitment of the great powers, combined with the reciprocal concessions of Israel and Hamas, nevertheless constitutes a positive signal after more than a year of bloodshed. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether this hope for a ceasefire will materialize.

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