HAS two days before the last European Council of the year, the Ukrainian question is posed a little differently since the meeting in Paris between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky and Emmanuel Macron. Indeed, the American president has begun to reveal his views. First information: Donald Trump, at this stage, does not see Ukraine joining NATO and considers that Ukraine must make territorial concessions to Russia. A hard blow for the Europeans, locked in a much firmer position…
Emmanuel Macron is trying to rebuild a united and middle European position which would avoid the pitfall of an unjust capitulation as well as that of endless, and extremely costly, stagnation. The French president has increased contacts by bringing together an arc of countries directly under threat from Russia. His trip to Poland, to Donald Tusk, is part of this strategy. The French president is also trying to rely on the leaders of the Nordic countries and the Baltic countries. Each interview aims to consolidate a “body” of European states capable of maintaining a balanced position in the face of the upheavals that are coming.
The temptation to give up
It is therefore a question of persuading the 27 to continue to support Ukraine, no longer for a total victory which is now illusory, to sufficiently put it in a position to negotiate while ceding as little as possible to Vladimir Putin. A balancing act which must deal with increasingly divergent European positions.
On the one hand, certain member states, traumatized by the Russian threat (the Balts, the Poles), are pleading for the continuation of total support for kyiv, with or without the Americans. On the other hand, some German (hence Scholz’s phone call to Putin) and Italian officials are already wondering about the advisability of continuing funding if Washington withdraws.
Security guarantees but without NATO
The new American president does not hide his intention to impose a ceasefire. But in Paris, Donald Trump, at the same time, recognized the need for “security guarantees” for Ukraine. But not via NATO. Donald Trump prefers direct engagement from the United States and Europeans. A position that raises more questions than it provides answers. What scope can security guarantees have if NATO does not get involved? Everything remains to be imagined.
Volodymyr Zelensky will not be satisfied with a repeat of the Budapest Memorandum of December 1994 which haunts people’s minds. This treaty, by which Ukraine renounced nuclear weapons in exchange for Russian, American and British territorial guarantees, turned out to be a scrap of paper. “Not twice,” warn the Ukrainians.
The various methods of freezing a conflict
To Discover
Kangaroo of the day
Answer
Several models of “frozen conflict” can be put on the table: the Georgian precedent (in Ossetia), the Moldovan case (in Transnistria), the Cypriot example or the Korean parallel. So many options which would prevent kyiv from legally recognizing any territorial loss, but would ratify in fact a partition.
ALSO READ Donald Trump is already marking his difference with Joe Biden on the war in UkraineThe next European Council should open the discussion. Emmanuel Macron will have to convince his partners that between extremism and abandonment, a third European way is possible. Time is running out: if Europe fails to define a common position before a possible return of Trump, it risks suffering through events without influencing them.
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