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In a Middle East marked by geopolitical rivalries, Russia plays a strategic role in the complex relations between Israel and the Syrian regime. Although Moscow actively supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, it strives to maintain a delicate balance with Israel, an indirect but influential ally in the region.
A key player in Syria
Since its military intervention in 2015, Russia has become a key player in Syria, consolidating the power of Bashar al-Assad. According to HaderekhMoscow has strengthened its military presence by building strategic bases, notably in Hmeimim and Tartous, while playing a mediating role in local negotiations. Israel, for its part, has adopted a policy of targeted strikes to contain threats posed by Iran and its allies, without provoking direct conflict with the Russian-backed Syrian regime (Haderekh, December 16, 2024).
Coordination between Jerusalem and Moscow
Ashvasser reports that military coordination between Israel and Russia is crucial to avoid incidents in Syrian airspace. This cooperation, although tacit, relies on secure communication channels that allow Israel to carry out targeted strikes against Iranian installations in Syria, while avoiding entering into direct confrontation with Russian forces. Moscow accepts these Israeli interventions as long as they do not affect the stability of the Assad regime (Hamvaser, December 16, 2024).
In parallel, Merkaz Ha’inyanim stresses that Russia has quietly encouraged the Syrian regime not to respond to Israeli attacks, considering that any expanded conflict could weaken its own strategic interests in the region. This position highlights Moscow’s desire to play a stabilizing role in an explosive context (Merkaz Ha’inyanim, December 16, 2024).
Iran, a factor of tension
Iran’s growing influence in Syria remains a point of friction between Russia and Israel. Yated Neeman reports that Israel has repeatedly expressed concerns about the presence of pro-Iranian militias near its northern borders. Moscow, while remaining close to Tehran, would have signaled to its Iranian allies to limit their activities in certain sensitive regions to avoid a military escalation with Israel (Yated Neeman, December 16, 2024).
Russia is also aware that tensions between Israel and Iran could undermine its efforts to rebuild Syria. Shaharit reports that Moscow recently proposed tripartite talks involving Israel, Syria and Iran to defuse tensions. Although this initiative remains in its early stages, it reflects Russia’s proactive approach in managing regional conflicts (Shaharit, December 16, 2024).
A measured political influence
Politically, Russia acts as a discreet moderator between Israel and the Syrian regime. According to HaderekhMoscow was instrumental in preventing a major escalation after Israeli strikes on facilities near Damascus. In return, Israel avoided targeting sites directly associated with Russian interests, illustrating a fragile but maintained balance (Haderekh, December 16, 2024).
An uncertain future for Syria
Russia’s role as mediator, however, remains limited by the conflicting ambitions of its allies and rivals in the region. Ashvasser stresses that Syria’s reconstruction is heavily dependent on foreign investment, including from Gulf countries and China, which could reduce Moscow’s influence in the long term. Israel, for its part, is closely monitoring developments in Syria, aware that any changes could alter the regional balance of power (Hamvaser, December 16, 2024).
A fragile but essential balance
Russia continues to play a crucial role in managing tensions between Israel and the Syrian regime. Its influence is based on pragmatic diplomacy, aiming to maintain regional stability while protecting its own strategic interests. In a constantly changing Middle East, Moscow’s ability to reconcile the conflicting demands of its partners remains a major challenge to its role as a regional power.
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