Both Russia and Turkey have an interest in maintaining good relations, but recent power plays on both sides and Russia’s diminishing influence in the Middle East and the Caucasus show that these ties are not hang on by a thread.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8 in Syria upset the balance of power in the Middle East. Once on an equal footing with Turkey, Russia has seen its influence in the region significantly diminished — an open door to tensions, experts say.
“The fact that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan supported the Islamist forces that took power in Damascus and that Bashar al-Assad fell without flinching must hurt Vladimir Putin. This must not please his regime”Carol R. Saivetz, senior researcher at the security studies program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), tells Euractiv.
According to her, future relations between Russia and Turkey will be determined by the central question of whether the Kremlin will manage to keep its two military bases in Syria.
“In this case, Vladimir Putin might be more supportive of what Turkey is trying to accomplish. »
“Indeed, if Russia loses the naval base of Tartous, it will no longer be able to challenge Turkey and claim to be a Mediterranean power,” explains the researcher, adding that, as things currently stand, Russia will not be able to extend its influence in Africa either.
In addition, the expert draws attention to the fact that Turkey invoked the Montreux Convention – an international agreement to regulate free movement in certain maritime zones – which kept the Russian navy confined to the Black Sea .
Moscow and Ankara need each other
Experts emphasize, however, that Russia needs Turkey as much as Turkey needs Russia. In other words, the two countries will maintain their relations, but they may not be as friendly as before.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan “wants to maintain relations with Vladimir Putin because if there is diplomatic momentum in the war in Ukraine, Turkey will want to play an important role in these negotiations”explains Sinan Ulgen, director of think tank Turkish Edam, based in Istanbul.
Russia is also key for the Turkish president to maintain his popular support, as oil and gas imports from that country keep prices low. “The natural energy that Turkey imports from Russia is lowering prices in Türkiye and making Recep Tayyip Erdoğan a hero to his own people”specifies Carol R. Saivetz.
According to independent Israeli researcher Marianna Belenkaya, geopolitically, Russia is also an important asset for Ankara in its game with Washington.
“By cooperating with Russia, Turkey shows the United States that it has an alternative in terms of choice of ally and that it can be useful as an intermediary for contacts with Moscow”she explains to Euractiv.
“Now that Russia has lost its influence in the Middle East and is subject to sanctions, it is more difficult, but Turkey must always maintain room for maneuver”adds the researcher.
In addition, Russia’s growing isolation following its invasion of Ukraine makes it more dependent on Turkey, according to Marianna Belenkaya, who believes that Moscow does not want Ankara to join international sanctions.
Possible clashes in the Caucasus
Since its massive invasion of Ukraine, Russia has lost part of its influence over the entire post-Soviet space, including the Caucasus, a region where the interests of the two countries could oppose each other, underlines the MIT researcher Carol R. Saivetz.
“Vladimir Putin sort of oscillates between Armenia and Azerbaijan, in part because Azerbaijan sells its oil and gas, and lets Russian oil and gas supply Azerbaijan’s domestic market. Russia therefore needs Azerbaijan at this level. On another level, Turkey helped Azerbaijan defeat Armenia and recover Nagorno-Karabakh. And generally speaking, I see that Turkey is trying to get more involved in the Caucasus”she explains.
But, according to the specialist, Russia no longer enjoys the same influence as before in the Caucasus because it is more concentrated in Ukraine.
“Vladimir Putin has shown some of the limits and damage that the war in Ukraine is causing to his foreign policy in other regions. »
[Édité par Anna Martino]
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