The fall of the Syrian regime Bachar al-Assadwhich occurred on Sunday December 8, 2024 after an eleven-day lightning offensive led by rebel forces, marks a historic turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The deposed president found refuge in Russia with his family, leaving behind a country profoundly transformed by thirteen years of civil war. The revelations of the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidanshed light on the diplomatic behind the scenes of this transition of power in Damascus.
Secret diplomacy to avoid bloodshed
The negotiations led by Ankara with Moscow and Tehran played a determining role in the speed of the fall of the Assad regime. The minister sapling revealed how the Türkiye convinced these two traditional allies of Damascus to stay back during the rebel offensive. This strategy aimed to minimize human losses by avoiding Russian or Iranian military intervention which would have prolonged the fighting. The international situation favored this choice: Russia, mired in its conflict with Ukraine, and Iran, whose allied groups were suffering setbacks against Israel, finally agreed to abandon their support for Assad.
The pivotal role of the HTS and regional concerns
The victorious offensive was carried out by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)an Islamist force resulting from a split with Al-Qaida. This connection raises legitimate concerns among Western and regional governments. There Türkiyewhich has maintained close relations with the HTS in north-west Syria, positions itself as a mediator. Hakan Fidan assures to directly transmit these concerns to the new authorities in Damascus, emphasizing the need for a Syria free of terrorism.
Ankara’s decisive influence in the Syrian transition
The rapid collapse of loyalist forces took Moscow and Tehran by surprise. The two powers had initially offered military aid to the Assad regime, but the scale of the rout forced them to review their position. There Türkiyewith its influence on the HTS and its in-depth knowledge of the Syrian terrain, now presents itself as the guarantor of a peaceful transition. The minister sapling insists on the responsibility of the new Syrian authorities to meet international expectations, recalling Ankara’s historic support for the opposition forces. This privileged position of Turkey could permanently redefine regional balances in the Middle East.
Belgium
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