The fall of Bashar al-Assad, a military setback for Russia in the Mediterranean

Saturday December 9 and Sunday December 10: three Russian frigates and a submarine quickly leave the port of Tartous. Officially, given the Syrian political upheavals, it is a safeguard measure, but for observers, the maneuver is more akin to a general rescue: the Russians urgently evacuate Tartous, their one and only naval base in the Mediterranean. Also evacuated from the nearby Hmeimim air base. A spectacular shipwreck, because the Syrian bases are the keystone of Moscow’s military ambitions in the Mediterranean and beyond Africa, underlines Vincent Tourret of the University of Montreal.

« The base which housed the Mediterranean squadron, which was a fleet detached in fact from the Russian Black Sea fleet, in fact ensured its forward reconnaissance, it was like a sort of outpost if you like, for Russian deterrence in general and in particular to threaten the southern flank of NATO, explains the academic. And the second point is actually the projection towards the outside, particularly for heavy equipment. It is an extremely practical hub towards Africa and therefore towards Russian attempts to create satellite or client states there, in particular with paramilitary or private groups of the Wagner type or now Africa corps ».

The Russian fleet, cut off from the Black Sea since the start of the war in Ukraine and the closure of the Turkish straits, was already isolated in the Mediterranean, ship rotations are carried out from the Northern Fleet, forcing warships into long transits. Without a naval base, it will be impossible for this fleet to maintain itself in the Mediterranean. The Kremlin will therefore pull out all the stops to keep Tartous, analyzes the research director at Iris (Institute of International and Strategic Relations) and diplomat Jean de Gliniasty. “Tartous is in the heart of the Alawite region (coastal region where deposed president Bashar al-Assad comes from). Hmeimim air base is 20 km from Latakia, so this is the area that for the moment HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Islamist rebel group from the Syrian civil war, led by Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, who took control of Damascus) has not conquered and it will be difficult. I think it’s not yet lost for the Russians. They have to work hard, strive, negotiate on all sides to try to keep this base because it is their only base in the Mediterranean. ».

What base for the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean?

First port of reception: Tobruk in the Libya of Marshal Haftar near Moscow, but the infrastructure is limited and does not allow the maintenance of the ships. The Russian fleet could therefore turn to better equipped Algerian ports, but this emergency rearticulation will not be an easy task and the image of the Russia comes out very damaged insists Vincent Tourret: “ The hardest cost is above all, I find, symbolic, because Syria was the first victory at the time, so 2017, which was to prove to the world that Russia was back in international relations. This is yet another disavowal of Russian power and a disavowal of its ability to stabilize conflicts. Syria was supposed to be the showcase for Russian-style pacification, more effective and more realistic than Western attempts. ».

Moscow’s Syrian adventure, says Jean Pierre Maulny, researcher at Iris, ended in a huge setback. “ The Americans had Afghanistan in the 2000s. We had Barkhane (French military operation in the Sahel 2014-2022) in the 2010s. Well, they will have Syria in the years 2010 – 2020, c that is to say a military operation which results in failure for the Russians as well as for the Americans or for the French. That’s still a lesson that must be learned. ».

Russia has therefore temporarily lost control and finds itself in great difficulty in the very strategic Mediterranean Sea.

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