The first time the idea was stated was in February, and it is an understatement to say that Emmanuel Macron, who was at its origin, was not convinced. Deploy European soldiers on Ukrainian soil? Madness, reacted kyiv's allies, including the United States, who had buried the project.
Ten months later, he is back in force. It could thus be the subject of discussions on Thursday, on the first day of the European Council to which Volodymyr Zelensky has been invited. It could especially be mentioned the day before, still in Brussels, where the new head of NATO, the Dutchman Mark Rutte, wishes to organize a meeting – for the moment unconfirmed – with the Ukrainian head of state and several European leaders .
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At the origin of this change of footing, there is the return of Donald Trump to the White House on January 20. The American president-elect has said it again and again: quickly achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine will be his priority. He reaffirmed this in front of the French and Ukrainian presidents during the improvised trilateral last weekend in Paris, before the reopening of Notre-Dame. According to the Wall Street Journalthe Republican also drew two red lines in the golden salon of the Élysée: the first is a categorical refusal to send American troops to Ukrainian soil; the second, its opposition to kyiv's upcoming entry into NATO.
“There is no indication that Russia would be ready to compromise, as Donald Trump would like.”
Except that Volodymyr Zelensky, before starting negotiations with Moscow, needs more guarantees, particularly security. And then the Ukrainian knows from experience that signing a ceasefire with Russia does not mean that his enemy will respect it. Hence the idea of deploying troops who would ensure its proper application. For the Europeans, who fear a direct agreement between Trump and Putin, this option would have the advantage of integrating them into the discussions.
It remains to be seen which States would volunteer to participate in this mission which would not depend on NATO or the EU. The Baltic countries would be in the running. The Italian Defense Minister has not ruled out participation this week. His German counterpart has not closed the door either. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also discussed it with Emmanuel Macron during his visit to Paris on November 11. The head of state also discussed the subject on Thursday with the Polish Prime Minister. If Warsaw is expected to have a leading role, Donald Tusk has been surprisingly reticent in front of journalists.
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Paris, a driving force on the subject, adopts the same stance of caution. “Talking about peacekeepers when we don’t see how the war can end is very premature”sighs a diplomat. Indeed, there is nothing to indicate that Russia seems ready to compromise, as Trump would like.
“The preconditions for negotiations are not met”said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov this week. Moscow, encouraged by the advance of its troops in the Donbass, is still camped on maximalist positions. And then, with the arrival of Trump, the Kremlin is counting on a drying up of American assistance. In the meantime, the Biden administration is taking advantage of its last weeks in power to fuel kyiv. After granting it $988 million in early December, it announced new aid of $500 million on Thursday.
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