It took Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTC) forces no more than forty-eight hours to take Aleppo, the major city in northern Syria. Assad's army disbanded at the first shots. The Turks, sponsors of HTC, were the first to be surprised. Then, the men of Joulani – the head of HTC – descended in a few days towards Hama, then towards Homs and finally Damascus, without encountering any real resistance there either. Bombings by Russian and Syrian aircraft were not enough to stop the offensive.
The key to these astonishing events is beyond doubt: the Assad regime was in disarray, it was only held together by the protection of its external guardians. However, among these, Hezbollah had been decimated by Israel, and Iran's positions in Syria had suffered massive Israeli bombardments for months. As for Russia, it had let down its guard, quite simply because it was occupied in Ukraine. The fall of Assad therefore appears to be a consequence of Israel's response to the aggression of October 7, 2023; This response has gradually led, with the major weakening of Iran, to the creation of a new geopolitical map of the Middle East.
In Syria, the post-Assad era has begun: reporting from the heart of a jubilant country
And now ?
Russia's distraction did the rest. Overjoyed to be rid of the bloodthirsty Assad dynasty, the Syrians however know that difficult tomorrows await them. The rebel factions, allied to take Damascus, nevertheless remain divided. The territory remains fragmented, with in particular the Kurdish zone escaping central power and fringes of the territory in the north controlled by Turkey – which moreover took two additional Syrian towns thanks to the transition to Damascus. Joulani reverted to his original name, that of Ahmed Al-Sharaa. His character asks questions. Without denying his Islamist orientation, he sent clear signals of his desire to respect religious minorities; he gives various pledges.
The Hebrew State tanks are 25 kilometers from Damascus. The West is silent.
However, we have never known a jihadist to convert into a moderate Islamist. And then the play of external actors will continue to weigh. Russia has taken a hit – particularly in its credibility as an unwavering ally of all authoritarians on the planet – but it is already negotiating with the new Syrian leaders the maintenance of its Tartous naval base and its air base. by Hmeimim. Iran will fare less well, even if, to tell the truth, Assad cost it dearly for an increasingly slim gain, since Israel could behave at home in Syria. Qatar undoubtedly has connections with Syrian Islamist groups.
Syria: the war continues, the Kurds on the front line
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates fear the emergence of a Salafist power in the Umayyad capital. And then there are Turkey and Israel, the two apparent winners from Assad's departure. Will Turkey maintain its influence over its HTC allies? Nothing is less certain: if he really wants to become a national figure, Ahmed Al-Sharaa will have to reach out to the Syrian Kurds; the clash will then be inevitable with a Türkiye obsessed with the desire to neutralize these same Kurds. He can certainly attempt a national anti-Kurdish coalition, but he will then have America and Israel against him. What about Israel? In just a few days, the Israelis destroyed at least 80% of Syrian weapons.
They did not want sensitive weapons to fall into hands less complacent than those of the Assads. More surprising: they moved on the Golan to take control of the “buffer zone” which, under the terms of a 1974 United Nations resolution, had remained on the Syrian side. Their tanks are 25 kilometers from Damascus. They got their hands on territory equivalent to three times the size of Gaza. The West is silent. This is a serious error: Israel's attitude can only exasperate the nationalist reflex of the Syrians and push their new leaders towards radicalism. Let's say it: Israel is playing with fire.
* Author of The Long Syrian Night (Humensis, coll. Alpha, 2022).
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