François Bayrou prime minister: Macron takes the same ones and starts again

Emmanuel Macron promised us a « surprise », according to communication from the Élysée. “The unexpected” not being a guarantee against disappointment, this took the form, this Friday, December 13, of the appointment of a historic Macronie to the post of Prime Minister: François Bayrou. Modem president becomes head of government after 1h45 conversation with president, commentators say “tense”and during which the centrist would have imposed itself.

In fact, Emmanuel Macron chose to continue his policy by catapulting the centrist at Matignon. As if no election had taken place in July, as if no censure had been passed. A week after promising the French “u“a new era which must begin where everyone must act for France and where new compromises must be built”, the President of the Republic names a history of Macronie, who like him believes in the worn-out rhetoric of “overcoming” the left-right divide.

Macron chooses a loyalist from his camp

The eight days which separated the censorship of the Barnier government and the appointment of François Bayrou, while his camp repeated that there was ” emergency “ to move forward, symbolize his helplessness. Refusing to question his policies, economic in particular, he had no good cards up his sleeve. Apart from perhaps his attempt at “government of general interest”, if indeed he ever really envisaged it one day, in any case quickly buried by the different political groups in Parliament.

Invited to the Élysée on Tuesday, the PS, the ecologists and the PCF nevertheless made a gesture by promising not to use 49.3 if Emmanuel Macron deigned to appoint a government of the New Popular Front, with a non-censorship agreement. A way to save time? A strategy to divide the NFP? These consultations ultimately did not result in any expansion of the presidential majority.

According to the participants at the December 10 meeting, the only real consensus between all the parties represented was the desire to “get out of dependence on the National Rally”. Except that Emmanuel Macron is doing the complete opposite here. Because by choosing as prime minister a faithful member of his camp, the President of the Republic places himself in an impasse similar to that in which Michel Barnier found himself.

Prime Minister, François Bayrou, failing to be able to count on non-censorship from the left to whom he has for the moment given no guarantee, risks once again putting his destiny in the hands of the RN. The far-right party assured that there would be no “no automatic censorship” but brandishes several red lines, including an increase in taxes.

“This appointment sends the wrong signal”

The first mission of François Bayrou, whose government remains to be determined, will be to build a new budget for 2025, and find majorities to hope for an outcome other than that of a 49.3, followed by a new motion of censure. However, it is difficult, today, to see which deputies could come to the aid of the 211 Macronist and LR elected officials to reach the 289 who would form a majority.

If François Bayrou hopes to win over the socialists from the NFP, France Insoumise has already announced that it is preparing a motion of censure. The PCF urges the new Prime Minister to renounce 49.3: “This appointment sends a bad signal, because the French are waiting for a new policy, but we are ready to debate whether he renounces this article”declared Fabien Roussel, the national secretary of the PCF. “It’s no longer politics, it’s bad theater”sighed, for her part, the boss of the Ecologists, Marine Tondelier, who also calls on François Bayrou to renounce 49.3.

In the days to come, the presidential camp could therefore, for lack of anything better, put pressure on the socialists. In view of the institutional impasse, certain figures from the right wing of the PS such as Karim Bouamrane or Carole Delga have called for “responsibility”, implying being able to work with the right, for the good of the nation. But this line should not be shared by the majority of deputies from the rose party. As in the case of Michel Barnier in September, when the PS considered that the former prime minister had not “neither political legitimacy nor republican legitimacy”the socialists could end up censoring François Bayrou.

The RN does not close its door

The opposite could cut them off from the NFP, even if their spokesperson Dieynaba Diop had opened a door at the beginning of the week, specifying that the appointment of a head of government would not necessarily imply a priori censorship, provided that A “non-censorship agreement to find majorities text by text and compromises be concluded”. But nothing of the sort has been sealed. Moreover, in recent days, the representatives of the PS have continued to demand, as a first priority, the “break with Macronist economic policy”.

So, the new tenant of Matignon could, like his predecessor, be tempted to rely on the far right. The day after the vote on the motion of censure, the president of the RN Jordan Bardella had in any case not closed the door to new support without participation: “If the day after tomorrow we have Mr. Bayrou, or Mr. Lecornu, to resume budgetary discussions more respectful of the purchasing power and the economic interests of the country, we will work in the interest of the French as we have always done. »

But this would imply a step backwards by the RN after having censored Michel Barnier, blurring its political communication, alpha and omega of the party’s choices. Only one thing is certain: the search for a stable majority appears, barring a miracle, impossible, for the Bayrou government. The new prime minister already seems to be on borrowed time.