Key information
- Europe needs substantial military investments to protect itself against possible Russian aggression.
- The EU estimates that an additional €500 billion will be needed over the next decade for defense investments.
- It is essential to reduce the fragmentation of the European defense market by encouraging joint procurement and collaborative projects.
Europe urgently needs substantial military investment to guard against possible Russian aggression over the next decade.
Andrius Kubilius, the first European defense commissioner and former Lithuanian prime minister, stresses the need to make significant financial injections and accelerate arms purchases. He advocates a radical approach to financing and arms acquisition, stressing that Europe must act decisively. The call stems from widespread concern among European leaders about the direct threat posed by Russia, particularly in light of Mr. Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
American foreign policy priorities
The potential shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities, with renewed attention to China under the Trump administration, further amplifies concerns about diminishing U.S. support for European security. While there is consensus on the need to increase defense spending, disagreements persist over funding sources.
Mr. Kubilius emphasizes the urgency, citing intelligence assessments that predict a Russian attack on a NATO country by 2030 at the latest. He says Europe cannot afford to delay preparations before it is fully ready, dismissing Mr Putin's assurances that there will be no more aggression as unconvincing in light Russia's actions against Ukraine.
EU defense investment plans
The EU estimates that an additional €500 billion will be needed over the next decade for defense investments. Various proposals are under consideration, including issuing EU defense bonds, borrowing against future national defense spending or reallocating funds from the COVID-19 recovery fund and regional development programs .
A more ambitious concept is to create a common defense fund bringing together willing EU countries, Norway and Britain. Modeled on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), this “Special Purpose Vehicle” would borrow money for common defense projects without increasing individual national debt.
Reducing the fragmentation of the European defense market
Mr Kubilius emphasizes that the EU demonstrated its ability to raise funds quickly during the COVID-19 crisis and should demonstrate the same urgency to address current security challenges. It aims to reduce fragmentation of the European defense market by encouraging joint procurement, aligning with NATO capability targets and pursuing collaborative projects such as a pan-European air defense shield.
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