Syria changed this week with the hasty escape of Bachar al-Assad towards Moscow, after a dazzling offensive by rebel forces on Aleppo then across the entire territory. This rout of the Syrian regime, supported for years by Russia, marks a major turning point in regional geopolitics. Vladimir Putin loses not only a strategic ally but also crucial military installations: the Tartus naval base and the Tartus airfield. Hmeimimreal Russian outposts in the Mediterranean.
Turkey singled out by Moscow
In the aftermath of this upheaval, eyes are turning towards Ankara. Turkish support for Syrian rebel movements has raised serious tensions with Moscow. Russian intelligence services suspect President Erdogan of having orchestrated the fall of the Syrian regime by approving the offensive. An accusation reinforced by the Turkish leader’s statements during the fighting, where he urged Assad to find a “political solution” – a posture interpreted as a thinly veiled ultimatum.
The threats of Alexander Dugin, the Kremlin ideologue
Alexander Dugin, an influential figure close to Vladimir Putin, launched a series of warnings against Ankara this Tuesday on the social network the attempted coup d’état in Turkey in 2016, where Moscow supported Erdogan. For Dugin, Ankara’s choice to facilitate the fall of Assad represents a “strategic error” which could cost Turkey dearly. The message is clear: in the event of future difficulties, Russia could well turn its back on its former partner.
A standoff with multiple repercussions
Dugin’s threats reveal the Kremlin’s deep bitterness over what it sees as Turkish betrayal. Promoter of the “Eurasianist” ideology which advocates an alliance between Europe and Asia under Russian aegis, Dugin is known for his radical positions. Under European sanctions since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, it influences part of the French far right and considers the conflict in Ukraine as a holy war against the West. His virulent rhetoric against the “globalists” and his vision of a Russia as guarantor of a traditional order find particular resonance in the current context. The break with Erdogan’s Turkey, which he now accuses of collusion with Israel, could herald a major reconfiguration of alliances in the Middle East.
Belgium
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