The start of 2024 was marked by a rather surprising development in the gas boiler market. Indeed, while public policies are moving away from this equipment, its activity saw an increase of 3% to 4% in the first quarter.
A few months later, this dynamic seems to have been confirmed. According to the company Vaillant, specializing in heating, boiler installations have even increased by 15%. This is therefore a significant turnaround for this market, which has fallen by 40% since 2021.
A dynamic driven by the economic choices of households
According to Benoît Garrigues, director of the Vaillant brand, this dynamic can be explained by the economic situation of households. Indeed, in a context of complicated purchasing power, they prefer to turn to inexpensive equipment. “Boilers are ultimately still very popular with the French in 2024 for two main reasons: a gas price that has become reasonable again and the choice of a less expensive solution to replace your heating system.“, explains the director.
The various state aids and subsidies granted to other equipment, notably heat pumps, therefore do not seem to be sufficient to encourage households to move away from boilers. Last June, Pascal Housset, president of the Union of Climate Engineering, Roofing and Plumbing Trades (UMGCCP-FFB), highlighted the illegibility of devices like MaPrimeRénov’. This complexity, according to him, favors the gas boiler.
Budget 2025: reprieve for 20% VAT?
Will this dynamic continue in 2025? Nothing is less certain. The finance bill (PLF) presented at the end of 2024 provided for an increase in the VAT rate on gas boilers. From 5.5%, the latter was to increase to 20% at the start of the year. Professional organizations then stepped up to the plate by proposing a 10% compromise to the public authorities.
However, the situation has been frozen since the censorship of the Barnier government on December 4. As the PLF has not been adopted, VAT rates will remain as they are for the moment. The sector will have to wait for the appointment of a new prime minister and the resumption of parliamentary work on the 2025 budget to be fixed.
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