Ukraine's military intelligence agency says Russia is withdrawing from its Syrian bases. Moscow has refuted these claims.
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The fate of Russia's air and naval bases on Syrian territory is up in the air following the spectacular ouster of President Bashar al-Assad, ally of the Kremlin.
Russia has two military bases in Syria: the naval base of Tartouson the Mediterranean coast, and the air base of Khmeimimnear the port city of Latakia. They are considered one of the Kremlin's most strategically important military outposts.
The Tartus site is particularly important, as it provides Russia with its only direct access to the Mediterranean Sea and a base for conducting naval exercises, stationing warships and even hosting nuclear submarines.
However, according to the Russian news agency TASS, Syrian rebel fighters have already taken full control of the Latakia province, where the two bases are located.
The Kremlin claims to be taking steps to “establish contacts in Syria with those who are capable of ensuring the security of military bases”, according to spokesperson Dmitri Peskov.
Russian state media also claimed that Moscow had guaranteed the fate of the bases as part of a deal that saw Bashar al-Assad and his family offered sanctuary in Russia.
Is Russia withdrawing its military assets?
However, a wealth of information, including from Russian military bloggers, suggests that Russia is withdrawing from its bases.
According to Ukrainian intelligence services, Russia is withdrawing its weapons and military equipment and evacuating its troops from its Syrian bases.
“To withdraw from Syria, the Russians deployed a caravan of military transport aircraft, which are carrying the remaining troops, weapons and military equipment,” Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) said in a statement.
According to Reuters, satellite imagery of the Russian base in Tartus suggests that at least three warships left the port and anchored at sea about 13 km from the coast.
The US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cited OSINT analyst MT Anderson's assertion that much of the Russian fleet has left port and is anchored at 8 km at sea.
Satellite images taken on December 9 also show that the Russian ships – probably the Gorchkov-class frigate “Admiral Gorshkov”, the Grigorovich-class frigate “Admiral Grigorovich”, the Kilo-class submarine “Novorossiysk” and the tanker “Vyazma ” Kaliningradneft-class aircraft – are waiting in the harbor, about eight kilometers west of the port, the ISW said.
Euronews was unable to independently verify these claims at the time of publishing this article.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russian warships would remain at their base in Tartus.
What would a forced retreat mean for the Kremlin?
The loss of its military presence in Syria would be a big setback for Russia.
From a geographical and strategic point of view, it is an essential site for Moscow, which can transit military assets there to African countries where it carries out operations.
ISW warns that the loss of Russian bases in Syria “will likely disrupt Russian logistics, resupply efforts and African Corps rotations, particularly weakening Russia's operations and power projection in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa “.
The rapid overthrow of the al-Assad regime has already dealt a blow to Russia and its ambitions to extend its influence in the Middle East.
The speed with which the rebels took Damascus has been partly attributed to the absence of unwavering support from the Kremlinwhich is mired in its war in Ukraine.
“The fall of the regime was much quicker and less bloody than anyone could have imagined, especially with a general belief in unwavering Russian and Iranian support for Assad. The weakening of the regime ultimately rendered incapable of resisting the advance of the rebels”, according to Julien Barnes-Dacey of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
But Russian state media, citing Kremlin sources, say the Moscow regime intends to engage with rebels during the transition of power, with the ultimate aim of safeguarding its military bases on Syrian territory .
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