François Bayrou, often consulted by Emmanuel Macron to choose the Prime Minister and regularly cited as an option, appears this time as the favorite for Matignon. The PS does not rule out “discussing”.
The days pass and his name continues to be mentioned among the favorites. François Bayrou is still in the race to be named Prime Minister according to the indiscretions of several well-informed sources in the media. The boss of MoDem, systematically mentioned as an option during previous reshuffles, could finally access Matignon, barring a new surprise or a name pulled out of the hat by Emmanuel Macron at the last minute. But the political crisis could work to the Democrat’s advantage. This historic centrist seems to be a serious option, or the least worst depending on your point of view, to try to obtain the promise of non-censorship from a majority of deputies. A coalition being firmly rejected on both the right and the left.
At 73 years old and with a long political career behind him, François Bayrou has mastered the mysteries of power and has an aura within the political sphere. He seems capable of speaking to the right and the left and promoting compromise: the only solution that will allow the future Prime Minister to resist a possible motion of censure from the National Assembly. Moreover, this close advisor and long-time ally of Emmanuel Macron is not content to be an option, he actively participates in the negotiations. He was also present at the big meeting at the Elysée with “all the parties”, except the RN and LFI, on Tuesday December 10. He was also entitled to a one-on-one meeting with the head of state on December 5.
The Bayrou hypothesis accepted on the right, not yet on the left
According to Emmanuel Macron’s plan, the future Prime Minister must be assured of the support of all deputies from the right, the central bloc and the left with the exception of LFI in the event of a motion of censure. The name of François Bayrou seems to have made its way among the elected representatives of the Les Républicains party who, according to its deputy general secretary Geoffroy Didier invited to Franceinfo, does not oppose the appointment of the centrist who “could be a solution”. Support which was not won in advance since part of the right continues to see in François Bayrou, one of the most vocal opponents of Nicolas Sarkozy and the man who deprived the former president of a re-election in 2012.
Conversely, the hypothesis of seeing François Bayrou at Matignon does not rejoice the left and the first secretary of the PS, Olivier Faure, made it known on BFMTV : the Prime Minister “cannot be François Bayrou who is obviously not the right choice”. However, the centrist who has contact with the left and who sent his deputies to exchange with socialists, ecologists and communists, hoped to be able to have his name accepted. Olivier Faure believes, however, that “what the French want is a break with the policy that has been pursued so far” and that François Bayrou will not allow this break. The fact remains that the chief socialist did not say that he would censor the boss of the MoDem if he landed in Matignon. A clarification which therefore leaves chances for the centrist to convince the left, undoubtedly at the cost of some assurances on certain policies (indexation of salaries and pensions to inflation, repeal of the pension reform, etc.) and the renunciation of the use of 49.3.
Little more, François Bayrou might not suffer from automatic opposition from the RN. The boss of MoDem has indeed always had a form of respect for Marine Le Pen, considering her in the same way as other political leaders, and recently opposed the idea that a sentence of ineligibility be required and then pronounced. against far-right politics. Support in the event of censorship on which the future Prime Minister should not count since the idea is to no longer depend on the RN, but which could still be useful. But after the obvious exclusion of the RN from the negotiations, the situation could change even in the event of the appointment of François Bayrou.
Bayrou in favor of a “disinterested and pluralist government”
François Bayrou has a precise idea of the strategy that seems to him to be the right one in this period of political crisis with a National Assembly lacking a sufficient majority to govern alone. The centrist has been pleading for months for the formation of a “disinterested, pluralist and coherent government” made up of “personalities of character”, without specifying the political sides which could or could not take part in it, as recalled Le Figaro. A vision which is similar to that proposed by Emmanuel Macron before the appointment of Michel Barnier this summer and the resumption of negotiations after censorship in recent days, but which also presents differences. Although he is a historic ally of the Head of State, François Bayrou has distanced himself from Macronist politics in recent years and never hesitates to express his opposition to presidential plans when he feels like it. An independence which makes the hypothesis of a change of political course possible, although limited.
If on the left we fear that François Bayrou will not allow us to mark the expected break, within the Macronists some fear that the centrist will claim too much independence and freedom in relation to Emmanuel Macron’s policy in the event of disagreements. The previous opposition of the head of the MoDem to the head of state has earned the former a certain reputation, some go so far as to consider him as “a complete pain in the ass” like someone close to the head of state At Parisian. “And Macron knows it,” adds the same person. A reputation which could earn him to stay once again in front of the doors of Matignon.
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