Bashar al-Assad: What does his fall mean for the world?

Syria is at the heart of the Middle East and the fall of the Assad regime will change the balance of power in the region and the world. Countries including Russia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United States all intervened during the 14-year war, along with Lebanese forces.

Russia is a key ally of Bashar al-Assad and state media said he and his family had arrived in Moscow and been granted asylum “on humanitarian grounds”. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said President Vladimir Putin personally made the decision.

Russia said its military bases in the country were in a “state of alert”, but an anonymous Kremlin source told Russian media that their security had been guaranteed by the rebels.

Russia entered the Syrian conflict directly in 2015, when it carried out its first airstrikes against opposition-held areas. His involvement is seen as one of the main reasons why Assad was able to regain control of most of the country from rebel factions between 2015 and 2016.

Moscow is now demanding an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss further developments.

Steve Rosenberg, the BBC’s Russia editor, said: “Russia’s big concern is the fate of its two military bases – the Hmeimim air base and a naval facility at Tartus, both on the coast. – which have allowed Moscow to gain a foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean in recent years.

“Even though Moscow supported Bashar al-Assad for nine years and sent him military aid to support him and keep him in power, now that he has been toppled, Russia is trying to find a dialogue with the new leaders of the Syria.

“Russia now insists that it has always wanted a political settlement of the crisis.

What is interesting is that until very recently, the Russian media described what they call “the armed opposition in Syria” as “terrorists”. This term is no longer used in news reports and we now speak of “armed opposition” or “opposition”.

Iran, which also supported Assad’s regime, said it expected “friendly” relations with Syria to continue.

Iran provided significant military support to Assad’s forces and formed one of the main paramilitary forces that fought armed opposition groups at the height of Syria’s war.

However, Hugo Bachega, BBC Middle East correspondent, said: “Iran is seeing its influence suffer a significant blow.

“Syria under Assad was part of the connection between the Iranians and Hezbollah, the militia and political movement that Iran supports in Lebanon. She played a key role in the transfer of weapons and ammunition to the group.

“Hezbollah itself was seriously weakened after its war with Israel. In the most violent phase of Syria’s civil war, Iran sent advisers to the country and Hezbollah deployed its fighters to help Assad crush the opposition.

“Iran has also seen the Houthis in Yemen being targeted by airstrikes. All these factions, plus the militias in Iraq and Hamas in Gaza, form what Tehran describes as the axis of resistance, which is now seriously damaged.

“This new image will be celebrated in Israel, where Iran is considered an existential threat.

Frank Gardner, the BBC’s security correspondent, explains that “the West had high hopes of Assad – a young British-trained ophthalmologist – when he inherited Syria’s presidency in 2000.

“He must have been a breath of fresh air,” people said, “after three decades of stifling, autocratic rule by his late father, Hafez, who is best remembered for ordering the massacre of more than 10,000 citizens in Hama in 1982.

“Like other young Arab leaders who took power the same year – King Abdullah II of Jordan and King Mohammed VI of Morocco – Bashar was seen as a modernizer eager to bring Syria into the era digital.

“Western disillusionment began in 2001, when the Syrian president refused to share British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s condemnation of all terrorist groups.

You call them terrorists, we call them freedom fighters”: this is how Bashar al-Assad describes the Palestinian armed groups that his country welcomes.

“Assad quickly proved he was no reformer – and when his people demanded change, he met their demands with bullets, barrel bombs, sarin gas and torture on an industrial scale “.

US President Joe Biden said Syria faces a “historic opportunity”, but the US is also concerned about a possible power vacuum.

The United States has supported certain rebel factions since the start of the war in Syria. But currently they mainly support the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control northeastern Syria.

Daniel Shapiro, a senior Pentagon official, said U.S. forces would remain in eastern Syria to fight the so-called Islamic State group, which he said could exploit the “chaotic and dynamic circumstances” to step up its operations.

Hugo Bachega, BBC Middle East correspondent, says “many people believe this offensive could not have happened without Turkey’s blessing.”

“For some time, President Erdogan had been pressuring Assad to engage in negotiations to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict that would allow the return of Syrian refugees. At least three million of them are in Türkiye, and this is a locally sensitive issue. But Mr. Assad refused to do so.

“Turkey, which supports some rebels in Syria, has denied supporting HTS, the Islamist group that led the insurgency.

Turkey, however, has supported some institutions that govern rebel-controlled areas in northern Syria, and it now says it will “intensify” its efforts to help secure a peaceful and stable future for Syria in the coming days. future.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this included finding a way to repatriate Syrians who fled during the civil war.

Support for the Assad government is one of the main fault lines between the different political groups in Lebanon, explains Carine Torbey, BBC Arabic correspondent.

Many consider that Syria occupied Lebanon for a long time, before Assad’s forces withdrew from the country in 2005. Some political factions that oppose the Syrian government therefore view its fall as a positive outcome.

On the other hand, political groups in the country that supported Assad see this as a worrying development.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government is notably considered one of the last cartridges for Hezbollah. “Syria, which has been the backbone of Hezbollah and its main supply route, is now cut off,” she adds.

“This is another hard blow, not only for the moment, but also for the prospects of rebuilding the group.

However, a member of Hezbollah’s political bloc in parliament said the “resistance movement” against Israel would not be affected.

“Whatever is happening in Syria, even if it is dangerous, cannot weaken us,” said Hassan Fadlallah.

A new influx of Syrian refugees into Lebanon, mainly Syrians from Shiite communities, is also raising concerns, and many of them have already entered Lebanon.

“That in itself shows how things have been completely turned upside down. We know that Shiites used to move from Lebanon to Syria under the Assad regime,” explains Carine Torbey.

“People arriving in Lebanon tell the BBC they have yet to face repercussions from the factions that have taken control of the country. But they left the country for fear of individual acts of vengeance against them.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the army to “take control” of the buffer zone between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and Syria after the fall of the Assad regime.

He said the disengagement agreement with Syria, which established the demilitarized zone in 1974, had “collapsed”.

Israel seized the Golan from Syria at the end of the Six-Day War in 1967 and annexed it unilaterally in 1981. This decision was not recognized by the international community, although the United States done unilaterally in 2019.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called the military takeover of the buffer zone a “limited and temporary measure” to ensure Israel’s security.

Yolande Knell, the BBC’s Middle East correspondent, said: “He also confirmed that Israel had attacked suspected chemical weapons and missile depots in Syria, saying it was to prevent them from fall into the hands of extremist factions.

“According to media reports, dozens of Israeli airstrikes have taken place in recent days, including on a Damascus site believed to have been used for rocket development by Iranian scientists.

Sebastian Usher, BBC Middle East regional editor, reports that a “Saudi official says the kingdom is communicating with all regional players to try to avoid chaos in Syria.”

“King Abdullah of Jordan, Syria’s neighbor, issued a similar message, calling for avoiding further conflict. As a precaution, his country sealed its border with Syria.

“A senior UAE diplomatic official, Anwar Gargash, said his country’s main concern was extremism and terror, and criticized Mr Assad for not using the lifeline offered to him by several Arab countries.