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With the fall of the al-Assad regime, Israel perceives danger, but also an opening

The dramatic fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad presents a potential danger, but also an opening for neighboring Israel.

After waging wars on several fronts for months, the Jewish state now fears that the unrest in Syria will spread to its territory. But Israel also views the end of the al-Assad regime as an opportunity to disrupt Iran’s ability to smuggle weapons through Syria to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

The Israeli army has taken control of a demilitarized buffer zone in Syria, created as part of a 1974 ceasefire between the two countries. She said the move was temporary and intended to secure its border.

But the incursion has drawn criticism, with critics accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire and possibly exploiting the chaos in Syria to grab land. Israel still controls the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria during the 1967 Middle East war and later annexed – a move that most of the international community does not recognize.

Here’s a look at recent developments along the Syrian border:

– Where are the Israeli troops?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that Israeli forces were moving to control a demilitarized buffer zone of about 400 square kilometers in Syrian territory. The buffer zone between Syria and the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights was created by the UN after the 1973 Middle East war. A UN force of around 1,100 soldiers has been patrolling the region since that time.

During a visit Sunday to a hilltop in the Golan Heights overlooking Syria, Netanyahu said that with Syrian troops having abandoned their positions, Israel’s entry into the buffer zone was necessary as a “temporary defensive position.” “.

The rebels who toppled President al-Assad and now control much of Syria are led by a former al-Qaeda militant, although he severed ties with the extremist group years ago and promised representative government and religious tolerance.

Israel has sent ground and air troops into the buffer zone, including on the Syrian side of snow-capped Mount Hermon, which is divided between the Golan Heights, Lebanon and Syria.

Only the United States recognizes Israel’s control over the Golan Heights.

– How long will Israeli troops stay in the buffer zone?

Israeli troops began moving into the buffer zone on Saturday. Also on Saturday, gunmen attacked UN forces near the border with Israel, according to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar.

“(The Israeli army) took targeted and temporary control of certain areas near the border to prevent an October 7 scenario from Syria,” explained Mr. Saar, referring to the surprise attack by Hamas in Israel in 2023 from the Gaza Strip.

Many actors in the region condemned this decision. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry accused Israel of “exploiting the power vacuum (…) to occupy more Syrian territories and create a fait accompli in violation of international law.”

This is not the first time Israel has entered the buffer zone this year.

An Associated Press report last month, which examined satellite imagery, revealed that Israel was working on a construction project, possibly a new road, along the border with Syria as early as July , and had in some cases entered the buffer zone during the works. After the release of the AP report, UN forces warned that the Israeli military had committed “serious violations” of its ceasefire agreement with Syria.

– Is Israel invading Syria?

Israeli political and military leaders stressed that the seizure of the buffer zone was temporary and not a prelude to entering other parts of Syrian territory.

“The plan at the moment is for this to be a temporary measure to ensure that stability at the border is maintained, to ensure that the buffer zone is maintained and that UN forces can remain,” said a military official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with military directives.

The official noted that in 2014, U.N. peacekeepers fled the buffer zone after Al-Qaeda-linked Syrian rebels attacked their encampments. After gunmen attacked U.N. forces over the weekend, Israel wanted to ensure the situation did not happen again, the official said.

Israel is not currently trying to change the border or prepare for an invasion into Syria, said Carmit Valensi, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank.

“For now, this is a tactical operation, not a long-term strategy, in response to the dynamics of the situation in Syria,” she said. With the collapse of the Syrian army, Israel wants to protect its borders until the situation stabilizes, she added.

– What are Israel’s interests?

Israel says its immediate goal is to prevent instability in Syria from spilling over into the border region.

Defense Minister Israel Katz outlined Israel’s plans for the border area on Monday. He claimed that after completing the takeover of the buffer zone, Israel would create a “security zone” beyond it by destroying heavy artillery across Syria and preventing Iran from doing so. smuggling weapons through Syria to Lebanon.

Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stressed Monday that Israel had struck several sites housing chemical weapons and long-range missiles to prevent them from falling into the hands of hostile actors. Mr. Saar did not specify when the strikes took place. Analysts said Israel was likely to continue carrying out strikes against targets across Syria.

Israel also plans to help the Druze population in Syria, a close-knit religious minority that also lives in Israel, Jordan and Lebanon and has maintained some cross-border ties.

Israel is also trying to open lines of communication with Syrian rebel groups, to help ensure that Iran-backed factions do not retake any territory, according to Valensi.

For many years, Israel has quietly provided food, medicine, clothing and other aid to war-ravaged southern Syria as part of “Operation Good Neighbor,” which ended in 2018. More than 4,000 injured and sick Syrians received medical treatment in Israel or in Israeli field hospitals, and these non-diplomatic ties could now prove crucial.

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