The Russian president, through his inability to defend his Syrian ally, has demonstrated significant military weakness while his army is still blocked on the Ukrainian front. For several experts interviewed by BFMTV, the fall of Bashar al-Assad is a hard blow at the diplomatic and military level for Moscow.
A turning point in history and the end of an undivided bloodthirsty dictatorship. 24 years after coming to power, Bashar al-Assad and his family were forced into exile in the face of the advance and spectacular offensive of the radical Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)notably from the former Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda.
Aleppo, Hama, Homs… Since the end of November, the latter have quickly seized several cities in the country before entering the capital Damascus on Sunday.
“The whole world was surprised”
This overthrow of the regime marks a defeat for Vladimir Putin, as the Kremlin has shown itself incapable of defending its Syrian ally, despite dozens of strikes reported on several points in Syria conquered by the rebels in recent days.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov refused on Monday to confirm the presence of the Syrian dictator on his territory. “The whole world was surprised by what happened (…) We are no exception,” he also added.
However, the Syrian theater had been an opportunity for Moscow, between 2011 and 2015, to once again shine on an international scale and regain its stature.
“The support that Russia had given, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, to the Syrian regime in 2015 to fight against Daesh had marked its return to the international scene, a sort of desire for power on the part of Russia that it was beginning to express at that time”, explains Jean-Didier Revoin, BFMTV correspondent in Moscow.
“The Russians capitulated in the open countryside”
However, this support gradually withered, becoming almost non-existent, while the Islamist rebels advanced rapidly across Syria. A renunciation which conveys an image of strong weakness on the part of the Russian regime and its military force. “On Russia, we are dealing with something truly ridiculous,” Frédéric Encel, geopolitologist specializing in the Middle East, confirms to BFMTV.
“Here is this great power which is clearly incapable of leading a simple expedition on a secondary front facing people who today are not the great army of Bonaparte in 1810. The Russians capitulated in the open countryside,” tackle- he.
For him, this Russian weakening is not so recent, and precisely coincides with the start of the Ukrainian conflict. “It was two and a half years ago that the Russian tanks failed in front of kyiv. Since then, we have never stopped seeing signs of weakness in this army which was considered just three years ago as the second or third in the world,” he adds.
kyiv, via the head of its diplomacy Andriï Sybiga, also took advantage of this situation to criticize Russia, stressing that “the events in Syria demonstrate the weakness of the Putin regime, which is incapable of fighting on two fronts and abandons its closest allies for the benefit of its aggression against Ukraine.”
Moscow no longer has the means to achieve its ambitions?
On an international scale, the inability of Vladimir Putin and Russia to defend the regime of Bashar al-Assad obviously does not send a positive message. Worse, Moscow seems to be gradually losing weight at the international negotiating table.
“The question that now arises for Vladimir Putin is that, as we see that Moscow is not able to support and come to the aid of its Syrian ally, what will happen to other partnerships important that Russia is trying to conclude, particularly in Africa and other regions of the world. It is the question of the credibility of Russian support that is now being called into question,” indicates Jean-Didier Revoin.
For several years, Russia has indeed been trying to gain a lasting foothold on the African continent, notably via the Wagner force, which has gradually interfered in local political life, including in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. However, the image given by Vladimir Putin in recent days could make certain African leaders rethink the collaboration with Russia, which is visibly reluctant to defend its allies and only seems to create alliances out of pure opportunism.
“Mr. Putin’s duplicity was once again expressed when he capitulated in the open to his Armenian allies in 2020 when they were attacked by Azerbaijan, Vladimir Putin never really supported Bashar al-Assad after 2016, and finally Putin is close to Iran because Iran is capable of providing him with what he does not even have, that is to say suicide drones to be used on the Ukrainian front”, further specifies Frédéric Encel.
Strategic points soon to be lost?
This decline in Russian influence in the region could also be illustrated by the loss of the two bases it owns in the country, the naval base of Tartous, which dates from the Soviet Union, and this air base of Latakia, created after his intervention in 2015.
“It’s a snub for Putin who had two bases in the warm sea, a naval and an air base, which allowed him to project himself into Africa from the Syrian coast,” says Antoine Basbous, political scientist and director of the Arab Countries Observatory. .
As RFI specifies, these two bases are major military assets for the Kremlin, and are “essential supply points for Russian military operations in Libya, the Sahel and the Central African Republic.”
“Russian military bases on the territory of Syria are on alert. At the moment, there is no serious threat to their security,” the Russian Foreign Ministry tried to reassure. “Russia is in contact with all Syrian opposition groups,” the same source assures.
Ten other Russian bases, much more modest, are installed across the country, including Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor. Little information is available regarding their current situation.
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