Syria. Why does no country want the fall of Bashar El-Assad?

Since the outbreak of the rebel offensive on Wednesday [27 novembre] in Syria, betting is going well and everyone is trying to understand the current sequence in the light of their own geopolitical reading grid. But while the Syrian regime appears weaker than ever, no external actor – neither among its sponsors nor among its rivals or adversaries – seems ready to see it fall. The times are no longer the same. We are no longer in 2011. Fatigue with change is general. The key word is stability.

On Russia's side, if a distancing can be observed, Moscow has no alternative to Assad and is trying to protect him, without putting all its forces behind him.

The Kremlin also took advantage, at the start of the offensive, of a press release in which it called on the regime to “restore constitutional order”, a roundabout way of returning him to his responsibilities and letting him know that, this time, the efforts will not be of the same magnitude as in 2015, when the Russian intervention in Syria made it possible to go to the rescue by Bashar El-Assad.

“The Iranians and Russians will slow the decline”

But today, Russia is mired in Ukraine and no longer has the same power as before on the Syrian ground. As for Iran, if Syria constitutes an otherwise existential issue for it, the hundreds of Israeli raids in recent years against the positions of its intermediaries in the country have weakened it, as has the war waged by Iran. Hebrew state against Hezbollah.

“The Iranians and the Russians will slow the decline, but there are areas where what happened recently is irreversible. The entire Idlib region may be unrecoverable for the regime,” deciphers the researcher and political scientist Ziad Majed. “The Iranians do not want the regime to fall but to be weakened