November 19, 2024 marks a turning point in the military escalation between Ukraine and Russia. France and Great Britain, supported by their Western partners, have decided to increase their deliveries of long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. These weapons, considered strategic, now allow deep strikes into Russian territory. This decision raises many questions about the geopolitical and military implications
The Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG missiles: an Anglo-French partnership for Ukraine
The missiles Storm Shadow (British) and SCALP-EG (French) are technological jewels, resulting from a joint program between Paris and London. Capable of hitting targets over 250 kilometers away, these missiles offer formidable precision. Already used by Ukraine since May 2023 in the contested regions of Donetsk and Crimea, theTheir deployment now extends to areas internationally recognized as Russian.
- Range: More than 250 kilometers
- Compatible platforms: Su-24M, Mirage 2000, F-16
- Guidance mode: GPS, infrared, inertial
- Accuracy: Target reached within a few meters
- Origin: Anglo-French partnership
These weapons are integrated on Soviet Su-24M aircraft and soon on Mirage 2000whose delivery is scheduled for January 2025. F-16 Europeans will follow in addition, strengthening Ukrainian strike capacity.
A strategic escalation orchestrated by the West
The delivery of these missiles marks a major strategic change. While the United States had previously curbed strikes on Russian territory, European pressure, particularly British and French, ended up reversing the trend. Supported by sophisticated Western satellite networks, the missiles enable deep strikes, such as those of November 20, 2024, targeting Russian strategic infrastructure.
However, Russia, with its advanced electronic warfare systems, has demonstrated an ability to counter these weapons. According to Ukrainian sources, several missiles were intercepted or electronically neutralized, reducing their effectiveness on the ground.
Military and geopolitical implications
Ukrainian military reinforcement:
- Delivery of new fighter planes (Mirage 2000, F-16).
- Possible integration of American JASSM missiles for deeper strikes.
- Increased use of Western military infrastructure, including satellite intelligence.
Russian reactions:
- Strengthening air defenses: Russia is adapting its systems to protect its internal territory.
- Targeted responses: Retaliation against the points of origin of the strikes is to be expected.
The decision to authorize these strikes poses risks to regional security. Uncontrolled escalation could result in Russian retaliatory attacks against the nations involved, transforming a regional conflict into an international confrontation.
Financial and human costs
The cost of these weapons, estimated at several hundred thousand euros per unit, raises questions about the sustainability of this military support. Donor countries, whose defense budgets are already under pressure, must justify these investments to their public opinion..
Distribution of missile deliveries and cost estimates:
- Great Britain: 75 missiles, 375 million euros
- France : 75 missiles, 375 millions d’euros
- Total : 150 missiles, 750 millions d’euros
Faced with a Russia determined to defend its territory and a Ukraine supported without reservation by the West, the war is bogged down in a spiral of escalation. What will be the next step? The integration of JASSM missiles, more efficient and carrying new destructive capabilities, could further push the limits. But how far?
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