Diesel deliveries to Brazil for the week ending December 8 show dominance from the United States over Russia, according to forecasts from S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS). Brazilian ports are expected to receive around 3.8 million barrels of gasoil and diesel, a 24% drop from the previous week.
The United States is expected to deliver 1.9 million barrels, surpassing the 1.8 million from Russia by 102,738 barrels. These deliveries mark a notable increase of 6% for the United States compared to Russia. However, overall gasoil and diesel volumes fell from the 5 million barrels forecast for the previous week.
Major ports and expected volumes
Among Brazilian ports, Paranaguá, located in the southern state of Paraná, will receive the largest volume of diesel, with around 1 million barrels expected. Santos, located in the state of São Paulo, is the second major port, with an expected receipt of 928,539 barrels. These two ports play a key role in the distribution of imported fuels into the country.
Impact on importers and prices
Despite these import flows, the economic context remains difficult for Brazilian distributors. According to a report from the Association of Fuel Importers in Brazil (Abicom), published on November 22, domestic diesel prices were on average 5% below import parity levels. This situation complicates conditions for medium or small distributors, reducing their interest in new imports.
Separately, the premium between diesel originating in the United States and diesel from other origins in southern Brazil remained at 4.75 cents per gallon on November 28, according to Platts, an entity of S&P Global Commodity Insights . This level is higher than the premium observed a week earlier, set at 3 cents per gallon.
Future trends and uncertainties
Despite the increase in American deliveries this week, the context of a general drop in volumes of imported diesel raises questions about the sustainability of these flows. Price fluctuations and dynamics of the Brazilian domestic market will be key factors in the coming weeks, particularly for small distributors.
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