The RN announces that it will vote to censure the government unless “a miracle” and throws the ball back into the court of Michel Barnier who risks censorship if he uses 49.3 during the vote on the social security budget in the National Assembly this Monday, December 2.
The bottom line:
- The Michel Barnier government is preparing for a crucial week: Michel Barnier should resort to 49.3 this Monday, December 2 during the National Assembly's vote on the social security budget and expose his government to a motion of censure which risks succeeding .
- The National Rally (RN) has decided: it will censor the Barnier government “barring a last minute miracle” and “if Michel Barnier were to review his copy within 3 p.m.”, declared Jordan Bardella on RTL. The far-right party remains faithful to its red lines which must be respected to ensure its support: the indexation of pensions to inflation from January 1 (while the text provides for a revaluation by half in January and a catch-up in July) and the abandonment of the dereimbursement of medicines envisaged by the government which would have the consequence of increasing the price of mutual insurance.
- But the government, which has already given in to two demands of the RN, has not planned new modifications to the social security financing bill (PLFSS) for 2025 as indicated by the Minister of Public Accounts, Laurent Saint -Martin, at Le Parisien. Will Michel Barnier hold this line? However, this seems to be his only chance to avoid censorship.
And directly
09:29 – Barnier brings together his common base before the vote in the Assembly
While he is threatened by a motion of censure and invited by the RN to stick more closely to its proposals to avoid being overthrown, Prime Minister Michel Barnier will bring together the group presidents of the common base of the National Assembly and the Senate at 1:45 p.m., according to Le Parisien. The meeting will precede the vote of deputies on the PLFSS scheduled from 3 p.m.
09:18 – A motion from the RN and the NFP.. Only one threat to the Barnier government
The RN plans to table its own motion of censure in the event of use of 49.3 by Michel Barnier this Monday, December 2. “It is ready and signed” indicated the vice-president of the RN, Sébastien Chenu, on BFMTV-RMC. However, this text would be above all symbolic since it has no chance of succeeding in the absence of the support of NFP deputies who refuse to support an initiative from the extreme right. A “sectarian” position denounced by the RN which says it is ready to vote for the left's motion assuring that “this is not an alliance of anything”.
09:05 – The Barnier government censored from this Monday?
The RN sets the government a deadline of 3 p.m., start of the session in the National Assembly, to initiate the necessary modifications to the 2025 budget. But whatever happens, the government will not be censored this Monday. The latter could, at the earliest, occur on Wednesday December 4, in the event of a motion of censure being tabled today after the Prime Minister's recourse to 49.3, which seems more than likely.
Censorship could also occur later, if 49.3 is not used this Monday, because two other votes on the budget are planned for December: December 6 for the end of management law, or December 20 for the 2025 budget .
08:47 – “Our financial situation is dangerous, worrying” warns the Court of Auditors
“Our financial situation is dangerous, worrying,” says Pierre Moscovici, the First President of the Court of Auditors, on France 2. “We really need to put the brakes on and give a sign that we are regaining control of our public finances” adds- he called for limiting spending and insisting on one point: the objective of “5% deficit must be achieved. Government censorship would bring the country into a “more uncertain phase” without however leading to “chaos” as announced by Michel Barnier declared Pierre Moscovici.
08:36 – The government’s “will” to “find compromises remains unchanged”
“Our door remains open, our desire to find compromises remains unchanged”, assures the government spokesperson, Maud Bregeon, on CNews/Europe 1. While the deputies meet at 3 p.m. at the National Assembly to vote the social security budget, the Prime Minister and his executive have only a few hours left to find a solution that would allow him to resist a motion of censure.
08:28 – The government denounces the inaction of the RN
Accused of having ended negotiations and forcing the RN to support censorship, the Barnier government “has always been in a position of listening, of co-construction”, assured its spokesperson Maud Bregeon on CNews /Europe 1. The minister places the blame on the far right which did not participate in the compromise: “To find compromise paths, it takes two. And compromise is not all or nothing, it's not an ultimatum”, believes the spokesperson, recalling that the executive has made concessions on certain measures contested by the RN.
08:14 – The government has “ended the cycle of negotiations” according to the RN
While threatening to censor the government, the RN places “responsibility” for the instability which would follow a government attack on the executive on RTL. Its president, Jordan Bardella, referred to the declarations of the Minister of Public Accounts, Laurent Saint-Martin made this weekend in Le Parisien: “When the budget minister says 'I will no longer move', it is precisely that it considers and acknowledges the end of the round of negotiations.” Reproaches already made yesterday by the same man and Marine Le Pen. As a reminder, the minister affirmed that the government would no longer take any further steps in favor of the demands of the RN after concessions from Michel Barnier on electricity taxes or even the reduction in the state medical aid budget.
08:04 – “Barring a last minute miracle”, the RN will vote for censorship warns Bardella
Marne Le Pen has made her decision and the president of the National Rally (RN) confirms it this Monday, December 2 on RTL: “The National Rally will activate the mechanism of the vote of censure, barring a last minute miracle.” “If Michel Barnier were to review his copy by 3 p.m.”, the party's position could still change adds Jordan Bardella who however has “little hope that [le Premier ministre] be touched by grace on the understanding that we have been knowingly ignored and despised for several months”.
01/12/24 – 22:51 – Marine Le Pen's decision is made
END OF LIVE – The government camp is “taking us for a ride”, judges Marine Le Pen. “They would have to surprise me for me to change my mind and I don’t believe they are capable of it,” she declared. According to her, Matignon's declaration that Michel Barnier remains “open to dialogue” is a “masquerade”. According to his entourage, Marine Le Pen's decision regarding possible government censorship has been made, he told BFMTV this evening.
To go further:
The Prime Minister, who regularly tells the media that he accepted his appointment without harboring any personal ambition, could give up his apron before the end of the year. For what ? Because the adoption of the 2025 budget does not find consensus among parliamentarians. Moreover, according to information from Le Parisien, even Emmanuel Macron confides behind the scenes that the “government will fall”, banking on censorship of the RN, “sooner than we think”. Information officially denied by the Elysée, but which spreads the rumor that the president is already preparing for the post-Barnier era.
It must be said that it is quite clear to everyone: Marine Le Pen is now aiming to bring down the government over the presentation of the budget. The president of the RN deputies, interviewed on RTL on November 20, had posed imperatives to Michel Barnier, demanding in a rather vague manner that the “purchasing power of the French be preserved”. This Monday, November 25, the noose tightened. Marine Le Pen spoke in the morning with the head of government and she did not seem to have obtained any guarantees: “Michel Barnier appeared to me to be at the same time courteous and firm in his positions. I repeated the lines reds of the RN”, she said, considering as very probable the hypothesis that the RN votes for the motion of censure in the event of the use of 49.3. “We will see if our words have gained ground, but nothing is less certain,” she said. “If the government persists and does not want to discuss, then this government will fall,” warned the president of the RN, Jordan Bardella, Wednesday November 27 at the microphone of BFMTV.
The president of the RN deputies now knows she is at the center of the game. But her demands are very numerous: “Tapping businesses and retirees is unacceptable, […] the increase of 6 billion that he is planning on the price of electricity is unacceptable for us”, she said. And his demands can give the government a cold sweat: the slightest impact on the power of purchase by the French would be considered a red line Given the 40 billion in savings – including measures on health reimbursements – and some 20 billion in taxes presented by the Bercy ministers, there seems to be no doubt. that the power purchasing power of the French will be reached. “It’s a red line. And if this red line is indeed crossed, well we will vote for censorship,” insisted Marine Le Pen.
Mr. Barnier confirmed in mid-November in the columns of Ouest-France that he would “probably” hold his government accountable by having recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution, which would allow adoption of the budget without a vote in Parliament. “The problem is not that of 49.3. The problem is what will be in the budget. Will Mr Barnier respect the commitment he made to ensure that the groups “Can the opposition recognize elements in its budget that seem essential to them?” asked Marine Le Pen on November 20.
What victory for Marine Le Pen?
Can the Prime Minister still convince Marine Le Pen in the coming days? To do this, it would be necessary to offer her pledges and some measures that she could present as a political victory. “He is spoiled for choice,” a political supporter from Michel Banier tells Politico, who mentions the counter-budget as “very reasonable and encrypted” of the RN. According to information from BFMTV, the far right will decide during the budget vote in the Joint Committee (CMP), which will try to bring together deputies and senators after December 12.
The fact remains that Marine Le Pen can decide on the political future of the tenant of Matignon, but also on the way in which the next chapters of the political soap opera will be written. Michel Barnier's ministers now have their eyes glued to the clock: it is likely that the Prime Minister will put an end to the debate, anticipating a blockage, by using article 49.3, undoubtedly at the end of the discussions in the CMP. And then he will no longer have control.
If the RN causes the fall of the government, it will most likely satisfy many voters and activists of its party, many of whom do not understand the RN's tacit support for Michel Barnier. The political crisis caused could also serve the interests of Marine Le Pen, who would change political priorities at a time when her conviction for embezzlement of public funds is expected at the beginning of January.
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