Aleppo, Syria's second city, fell to the Islamists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. For the first time, Bashar al-Assad's regime has lost control of the country's economic capital. Its long-time allies, Russian and Iranian, gave in without resistance. But why did this jihadist offensive take place now?
A fearsome lightning attack. Launched on Wednesday from Idlib, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham offensive defeated the Syrian authorities. In three days, these “rebels”, composed of former members of al-Nusra, already recomposed from the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda, “took control of the majority of Aleppo, government centers and prisons » according to a press release from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an NGO based in the United Kingdom which relies on a vast network of sources in Syria.
Aleppo airport was also besieged. The human toll of the lightning offensive so far: more than 370 dead, mainly fighters and soldiers. After the Israeli attacks on its military infrastructure, this is a new blow for the regime which had never lost control of the country's second city.
However, the authority of the Syrian president was only a facade: “Since 2020, Aleppo lived under the common authority of the Pasdaran, [Corps des gardiens de la révolution islamique]and Lebanese Hezbollah. With the war between Hezbollah and Israel, Iran dispatched the Pasdaran from Aleppo to southern Lebanon to lead the front, the same thing for Hezbollah” explains Antoine Basbous, political scientist, associate at Forward global and director of the Observatory. Arab countries.
Because after the uprisings in the country in 2011 – which left 400,000 dead – the city was, partially and for a time, under the yoke of the rebellion, before being recovered in 2020 by Russia and Iran. “The Russian army did in Aleppo what it did in Grozny [capitale de la Tchétchénie]therefore massive destruction and scorched earth. Destroy everything that could be destroyed and terrorize the population” further deciphers Antoine Basbous. Then, the entire country became a Russian-Iranian protectorate after an agreement between Moscow and Tehran. A few pockets in northern Syria, including Idlib, the city from which the assault began on Wednesday, have been recovered by Turkey.
“The city was no longer defended”
Aleppo, but also the entire region with a radius of approximately 100 km and its 120 villages, are no longer in the hands of the Russians and Iranians. “The city was no longer defended. Aleppo fell in thirty-six hours, without a fight, where it had been the subject of numerous extremely intense bombardments for four or five years,” points out the director of the Arab Countries Observatory. And for him, the explanation lies in the overall tensions in the region and in the military strategy adopted, although chosen by default: “The fall of Aleppo is the result of the war started with October 7 which reduced the Hamas and Hezbollah, to the point that Hezbollah and the Pasdaran had to leave the Aleppo front to go to Lebanon to fight Israel.” Among the capture, Saraqeb, intersection of two highways linking Damascus to Aleppo and Latakia.
Arriving at the gates of Hama, the fighters now want to conquer this new city, but the Syrian regime wants to keep face: the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports that the army has been reinforced there. Russian strikes were also heard near the University of Aleppo and in Idlib according to the NGO, Turkish breeding ground. Russian air raids have already taken place on Aleppo during the night from Friday to Saturday, the first since 2016. For Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, there needs to be “coordination” between Tehran and Moscow in order to “neutralize this dangerous conspiracy”. The Syrian president, for his part, promised to use “force” to eradicate “terrorism”.
Major change in influence
Heir to a very powerful regime, born from a coup d'état, and harshly held by his father, Bashar Al Assad is today only the shadow of what Hafez al Assad had built. The state of affairs is catastrophic: “Syria is divided into several occupied parts: there is Turkey which controls one area, the United States controls another, Russia holds another, the Iranians are everywhere, and Israel occupies the airspace. As a result, Bashar al-Assad is a small baron who controls only two strong regions: the capital Damascus and the Alawite Mediterranean coast, namely Tartous and Latakia,” explains the specialist in the region. The dictator's only resource: the manufacture of captagon.
This fall of Aleppo marks a turning point in the region, because behind this major event, there is a change of influence in Syria: “Before, there was a rival association between Iranians and Russians, today, with this offensive , with the loss of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran has just lost its influence in northern Syria. The stronghold of its influence in northern Syria was Aleppo,” explains Antoine Basbous, “the Turkish neighbor, who colonized Syria for more than four centuries, is back.” For the political scientist, “the Syrians obviously aspire for their country to be free but they hate Bashar al-Assad, the latter has failed, his regime no longer controls much, so they prefer Turkish influence to Iranian influence, because Turkey is at their doorstep while Iran is 1,000 kilometers away.”
From now on, it is the Russians and the Turks who will have to collaborate to share the territory, leaving behind the former fallen Iranian partner.
what about the 3.7 million Syrians displaced in Türkiye?
Turkey, the main host country for Syrian refugees according to the latest data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, is seeking to get rid of these new arrivals. Victims of several waves of violence and targeted by ambient hatred, the nearly 4 million Syrians would like to return home, and Erdogan is ready to do anything to send them back.
“It was these Syrian refugees who caused Erdogan to lose the municipal elections. So the Turkish president's opportunity was to send the Syrian rebellion into a city whose front was depleted. He had already proposed to Bashar al-Assad to normalize relations between the two countries so that the Syrians could return home, but Assad did not want that,” comments Antoine Basbous.
Indeed, the return of these millions of Sunnis is not part of the Syrian president's strategy: these Syrians are Sunni Muslims, already the majority in the country. Himself from a minority, the Alawites, “Bashar al-Assad wants a majority of minorities, led by the Alawites” confides the political scientist. The city of Idlib already being a Turkish stronghold, President Erdogan needs another city to offload a few more Syrians: Aleppo, also in the north, is the perfect prey: “It is a predominantly Sunni city, with Christian, Christian Armenian and Kurdish minorities. By conquering Aleppo, Recep Tayyip Erdogan can negotiate from a position of strength and tell Syrian refugees to return home safely, since a peaceful agreement could be signed. Like the city of Idlib where the Turkish lira circulates, and services such as electricity are provided by the Turks.” The assurance for them that “everything will go well, like in Idlib”.
Who controls Aleppo now?
The identity of those who took power in Aleppo is multiple. It is a coalition of rebel groups, and for Antoine Basbous, it is made up of two branches: “There is a first Islamist branch, made up of Islamists and jihadists, structured, supplemented by refugees who were looking for a job – this is the Syrian branch of Turkish influence -, joined by people who want to find their homes. The second branch is the Free Syrian Army, Assad’s dissident army, under the orders of Erdogan.” In short, two Turkish influences, but with a very different objective: “The Free Syrian Army's mission is to conquer territories held by the Kurds, because an emerging Syrian Kurdistan could give ideas to the Turkish Kurds, and this “It is inconceivable for Turkey to leave the idea of possible emancipation to its Kurds lying around,” continues the political scientist.
For the Syrian population, who have spent their lives under terror, oppression nevertheless seems to be getting off to a better start: Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly of Al Qaeda, this time promised to the populations not to force them to convert to Sunnism: “Today, he sends an opposite message: he told them not to worry and that nothing was going to happen to them. I cannot vouch for this commitment but I note that in a few years this discourse has changed. He polished his governance to be accepted by his constituents and by the international community.” analyzes Antoine Basbous.
Will Syrians one day be allowed to hope for a better future than a “less worse” one?
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