The purge continues
The news had the effect of a bombshell: on November 28, Defense spokesperson Wu Qian announced the indictment of the admiral Miao Huaone of the six members of the Central Military Commission (CMC) headed by Xi Jinping.
The situation is unpublished : if Miao becomes the 7th member of the CMC purged since Xi came to power in 2012, it is the first time that two seats of the CMC are vacant simultaneouslywith the fall of the Minister of Defense, Li Shangfu. The only time the highest level of the military apparatus experienced such an upheaval dates back to 2014-2015, during the successive purges of Xu Caihou and of Guo Boxiongtwo generals having been complicit in an attempted coup against Xi, but officially accused of having accepted bribes from officers wanting to be promoted.
Miao Hua's fall is all the more surprising that it was Xi himself who was at the origin of his rise, the two men having shared a few years together in Fujian. It was thanks to Xi that Miao was appointed in 2014 as director of the political department of the entire marinea rare promotion for a man who had a career in forces terrestres. It was also thanks to Xi that Admiral Miao joined the CMC in 2017, as director of the political work departmentan extremely coveted position which had allowed him to place several of his foes in key positions in the APL, under the noses of two other vice-presidents of the CMC, Zhang Youxia, leader of “Vietnam veterans” and He Weidongfrom the “Taiwan clique.”
on loss of speed was nevertheless notable last July, with the impromptu promotion of He Hongjun – another “three-star” general, now tipped to replace him – as his deputy. “ This appointment could therefore already be interpreted as a vote of no confidence against Miao », concluded the Cercius cabinet in its August letter.
With Xi Jinping in Pyongyang in 2019
So why is Xi Jinping taking the risk (again) to tarnish his reputation by dismissing one of “his own”? Probably because he wants to make Miao a example for all the rest of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) by showing that its determination to eradicate corruption and therefore to control the army is stronger than ever. In June, the President of the CMC ordered the senior officers of the PLA, gathered for the first time in a decade in Yan'an, the cradle of the Chinese revolution, to “ deeply question themselves, sincerely rectify themselves, resolve problems at the root of their thinking ».
The indictment of Miao comes in a particular context: for 18 months, the logistics department, equipment and missile force of the PLA have been the subject of a purge having led the arrest more than fifteen senior officers and executives from public groups in the defense sector. Rumor has it that Xi saw red when he learned that the corruption of these leaders would have resulted in harm to combat ability from APL.
However, Admiral Miao Hua has no obvious connection to the departments targeted by the current purge. It is therefore unlikely that he will be involved in these affairs. The trail of a “political” fault is then rather to be favored to explain its fall.
« Would Xi Jinping, who necessarily approved Miao's dismissal, became afraid of the growing influence of the latter within the PLA? Or would it have been pushed to dismiss it by other forces present within the CMC? Both scenarios are possible », analyse Alex Payetteco-founder of the Cercius firm.
One thing is certain: the protégés of Miao Hua could also find themselves in troubled waters. On the front line is the Minister of Defenseadmiral Dong Junappointed in December 2023 with the support of Miao, and to the detriment of Liu Zhenli, supported by Zhang Youxia. Dong's appointment therefore did not unanimity within the members of the CMC. Proof of this is: Dong has still not obtained a seat on the CMC, nor the title of State Councilor, unlike all his predecessors… However, the rumor of Dong being put under investigation, fueled by his absence during an official visit from November 24 to 27, was firmly denied by spokesperson, Wu Qian. But if we rely on the recent cases of Li Shangfu, his predecessor, or Qin Gang, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs, it would be wrong to take these denials at face value…
Above all, the Miao Hua affair sends a very worrying signal to the chinese navy that Miao represented at the highest level. Will the disciplinary apparatus now review all levels of the Chinese “navy”, the spearhead of a potential military reconquest the Taiwan ? A decision that would have serious consequences for the PLA's modernization efforts and Xi's strategic agenda. But perhaps the leader feels that it is a necessary sacrifice in the short term make the PLA a leading and combat-ready force.