War in Ukraine: why kyiv is still far from joining NATO

Since the Russian invasion in February 2022, the question of Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has become more than ever a hot topic, crystallizing geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia, and becoming, in fact, one of the keys to ending this conflict.

Since 1994, Ukraine has wanted to join NATO

The history of relations between Ukraine and NATO dates back to the fall of the USSR. In 1994, kyiv joined the Partnership for Peace, the first step in a cautious rapprochement. But it was truly the Orange Revolution of 2004 that marked a turning point, with the coming to power of pro-Western forces. The Bucharest summit in 2008 seemed to open the way to future membership, without setting a precise timetable.

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Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a stark reminder of the region's strategic challenges. Moscow – taking a very dim view of NATO's eastward expansion into the former satellite countries of the USSR which were members of the Warsaw Pact – had expressed its opposition to any integration of Ukraine. A red line which has not dissuaded kyiv from continuing its rapprochement with the Alliance.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 paradoxically accelerated this process. In the face of aggression, NATO mobilized to support Ukraine, providing unprecedented material and financial support. This aid, crucial for the Ukrainian resistance, was however limited because the Alliance refused to intervene directly, fearing an escalation towards a NATO-Russia conflict.

From then on, the question of Ukrainian membership became a real diplomatic headache. On the one hand, NATO reaffirms its “open door” policy, a fundamental principle enshrined in Article 10 of the Washington Treaty. On the other hand, it is hesitant to welcome a country at war, which could lead it into a direct conflict with Russia under Article 5 which requires members to come to the aid of whichever of them would be attack.

The Trump plan torpedoes rapid accession

Volodymyr Zelensky, supported by the countries of Eastern Europe, has been pleading for two and a half years for rapid accession, the only way to guarantee the future security of his country. Membership in the Alliance is also one of the five key points of the peace agreement proposed by Zelensky, who also hopes for the deployment on his territory of a non-nuclear strategic deterrent device.

But Westerners remain cautious. At the Vilnius summit in July 2023, NATO reaffirmed that “Ukraine's future is in the Alliance” without setting a timetable. In mid-October, the G7 defense ministers gave their support to Ukraine's “irreversible march towards full Euro-Atlantic integration, including membership in NATO”, supported by the Secretary of State American Antony Blinken.

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However, the prospects for membership seem to be complicated with the re-election of Donald Trump. The future president of the United States said he had a plan to resolve the conflict “in 24 hours” in which membership is in question. According to comments from future Vice President JD Vance, the plan would first consist of the creation of a demilitarized zone along the front line.

Ukraine would maintain its independence in exchange for a guarantee of neutrality given to the Russians; meaning it would not be able to join NATO for at least 20 years or other “allied institutions”. In exchange, the United States would continue to provide weapons to Ukraine to deter a future Russian attack.