talks in Geneva with the Europeans, on nuclear power, the country's support for Russia and the war in the Middle East

Less than two months before the return to the White House of Donald Trump, architect of a so-called policy of “maximum pressure” towards Iran during its first mandate, talks are being held on Friday, November 29, in Geneva, between Iran, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. The Iranian nuclear issue must be discussed, but also the question of Iran's support for Russia and the situation in the Middle East, in a context of extreme tensions. The meeting is shrouded in the greatest secrecy, neither the names of the participants nor the location where the diplomats from the four countries are to meet having been revealed.

The number two in European diplomacy, Enrique Mora, said he had a meeting on Thursday “frank discussion” in Geneva with Majid Takht-Ravanchi and Kazem Gharibabadi, two deputies to the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghtchi. This one carried “on Iran's support for Russia, which must end, on the nuclear issue, which must find a diplomatic solution, on regional tensions – it is important that all parties avoid escalation – and human rights”he wrote on X.

Mr. Gharibabadi, for his part, considered that Europe had not “failed to be a serious actor” on the nuclear issue, after the return since 2018 of American sanctions against Tehran which the Europeans opposed. The Iranian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs in charge of legal issues also called on Friday on X the European Union (EU) to abandon behavior judged «irresponsible» by Tehran on a series of international issues, in particular the war in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.

Avoiding a “doubly disastrous” situation for Tehran

For Tehran, the aim of the talks is to avoid a situation “doubly disastrous” which would place Iran once again facing this American policy and, this time, that of the Europeans, explains Iranian political scientist Mostafa Shirmohammadi to Agence France-Presse. Because to the thorny nuclear issue are added Western accusations that Iran is supplying the Russian army with explosive drones for its war in Ukraine, which Tehran denies.

In this context, “Iran does not have the Europeans on its side”recalls Mr. Shirmohammadi. Iran hopes to smooth things over with the Europeans, while showing firmness.

France, Germany and the United Kingdom, associated with the United States, criticize Iran for its lack of cooperation on nuclear power. In response, Tehran announced it would put new centrifuges into service “advanced” to enrich uranium but did not give a timetable. In an interview with the British daily The Guardian published Thursday, Mr. Araghtchi explained that Iran could acquire nuclear weapons if the Europeans reimposed sanctions.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), responsible for monitoring Iran's nuclear program, has confirmed Tehran's plan to install some 6,000 new centrifuges to enrich uranium at low levels, according to a confidential report obtained Friday by Agence France-Presse. The Iranians defend the right to nuclear power for civilian purposes and deny wanting to acquire atomic weapons, something of which the West strongly suspects them.

Pessimism

Thursday evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose country is Iran's sworn enemy, reiterated his determination to prevent Tehran from acquiring an atomic bomb.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in power since 1989 in Iran, has banned any use of atomic weapons in a religious decree. “There is a debate right now in Iran that maybe this was bad policy”declared Mr. Araghthi at the Guardian. If the Europeans reimpose sanctions on Tehran, “they will then have convinced everyone in Iran that, yes, this doctrine is wrong”he insisted, telling himself “pessimistic” regarding the outcome of the Geneva discussions.

In 2015, Iran concluded an agreement in Vienna with France, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, Russia and the United States, to regulate its nuclear program. In return, the text provided for a reduction in international sanctions against Tehran. But in 2018, Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew his country from the agreement – ​​which Tehran was complying with, according to the IAEA – and reinstated heavy sanctions against Iran. In retaliation, Tehran considerably increased its reserves of enriched uranium and increased the degree of enrichment to 60%, close to the 90% necessary for the manufacture of an atomic weapon. The 2015 nuclear agreement, which negotiations failed to revive and which will expire in October 2025, blocked the enrichment rate at 3.67%.