As January 2025 approaches and Donald Trump returns to the White House, much speculation arises about how the United States will encounter Iran’s nuclear program. Some believe that the policy of “maximum pressure”, accompanied by measures to reduce Iran’s oil exports, as was the case during Trump’s first term, could force Tehran to back down on its nuclear ambitions. However, irrefutable evidence shows that the Iranian regime has no intention of abandoning its nuclear program.
The weakening of Iran’s regional proxies
Since proxies of the Iranian regime, such as Hezbollah, have been significantly weakened, if not completely dismantled, Tehran no longer has the tools it once used to exert pressure on the international community. In the past, these proxies, combined with the nuclear threat, allowed Iran to induce Europe and the United States to adopt a policy of appeasement, turning a blind eye to regional terrorism, mass executions and human rights violations inside the country.
Today, the regime, having lost these levers, relies almost exclusively on its nuclear program to maintain its extortion power. Ahmad Naderi, member of the Presidium of the Iranian Parliament, implicitly confirmed this weakening of the regime and declared:
“Until we are moving towards an atomic bomb, balance in the region cannot be achieved. »
International and national reactions
On the evening of Thursday, November 21, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) adopted a resolution against Iran, despite opposing votes from Russia and China. According to The Wall Street Journal“The reprimand, presented by Britain, France and Germany with the support of the United States, constitutes the first significant step in a months-long process that could result in the reimposition of international sanctions against the Iran. »
The resolution demands that Tehran immediately cooperate with the IAEA and answer unanswered questions about its nuclear activities.
Over the past three decades, the Iranian regime has not only secretly pursued its military nuclear program, but also developed it through deception. Today, it has accumulated 32 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, enough to make several nuclear bombs, in clear violation of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Despite growing pressure, Tehran continues to obstruct the IAEA’s demands for transparency, refusing to provide clear answers to questions raised by the agency.
The Iranian opposition, notably the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which first revealed Tehran’s clandestine nuclear program in 2002, strongly criticizes this project. According to the NCRI, the regime’s nuclear ambitions go against the interests of the Iranian people, as this program has cost the country more than $2 trillion, plunging more than two-thirds of the population into extreme poverty. Maryam Rajavi, president of the NCRI, which presents itself as an alternative to the current regime, believes that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is essential for peace in the region. She pleads for the activation of the mechanism of snapback provided for by UN Security Council Resolution 2231 and for the reactivation of six previous Council resolutions on Iran’s nuclear program, although it recognizes that these actions come late.
Iranian regime tactics
Faced with growing international pressure, Iran appears to be adopting a dual strategy: buying time while secretly advancing its nuclear program. Ali Larijani, advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and former Speaker of Parliament, said:
“If the new US administration claims to oppose nuclear weapons, it must accept Iran’s conditions… to reach a new agreement, not issue unilateral decrees like their decision at the IAEA! »
The regime is clearly seeking to attract the Trump administration to the negotiating table in order to delay the activation of the mechanism of snapbackwhich could reinstate UN sanctions. With the expiration of some key JCPOA restrictions scheduled for October 2025, this delay tactic is crucial for Tehran.
In this context, on November 25, Khamenei announced a reduction in uranium enrichment from 20 to 60%, an apparent concession intended to ease international pressure. However, behind the scenes, the regime is quietly working to increase its enrichment to 90%, the threshold necessary for the production of nuclear weapons. According to Kamalvandi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, the regime is using advanced technologies to speed up this process, hoping to surprise the international community, as North Korea did by suddenly revealing its nuclear capabilities.
Europe and the United States, overcoming divisions
For years, the Iranian regime has exploited divisions between Europe and the United States to maintain its nuclear program. However, according to Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, former chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament, “ The IAEA resolution is the first sign of a difficult winter for Iran. Europe has moved closer to Trump’s policy of maximum pressure. It demands a reduction in nuclear activities and an increase in inspections without offering concessions. »
This rapprochement between Europe and the United States reflects growing frustration with Iran’s destabilizing role in global conflicts, notably in Ukraine and the Middle East. Iran’s support for proxy wars, combined with the 2022 internal uprisings that exposed the regime’s fragility, pushed Europe to abandon its policy of appeasement. Now, Europe appears to be aligning itself more with the United States’ strict stance toward Iran.
For his part, Trump also needs European cooperation to maximize pressure on Iran. Since the United States is no longer part of the JCPOA, Europe must activate Article 11 of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 to reinstate sanctions. This approach circumvents the need for IAEA approval and renders possible vetoes by Russia or China ineffective.
With the growing alignment between the United States and Europe and the internal and external vulnerabilities of the Iranian regime, the activation of the mechanism of snapback seems more and more likely. This action remains the most realistic path to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, guarantee stability in the Middle East and prevent an arms race in the region.
However, Tehran will likely continue to deploy diplomatic maneuvers to buy time, counting on the complexities of international politics to delay decisive action. But given the high costs of current global conflicts and the growing pressure of a unified Western front, the regime’s ability to resist appears increasingly limited.
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