is Russia preparing a confrontation with NATO?

On November 28, 2024, during a conference at the German Foreign Policy Institute, Bruno Kahl, director of the German Secret Service (BND), revealed worrying information about Russia's intentions. In a tense international context, Vladimir Putin's Russia seems determined to test the solidity of NATO, accentuating concerns about a possible military escalation. This article explores underlying geopolitical dynamics, Russian strategies and implications for European security

An ever more aggressive hybrid war

Since February 2022, the war in Ukraine has marked a turning point in relations between Moscow and the West. According to Bruno Kahl, Russia is intensifying its hybrid actions: cyberattacks, disinformation and sabotage. Germany, a key supporter of Ukraine, has become a favored target. In 2024, Russian cyberattacks have increased in frequency and sophistication, affecting both state organizations and their partners.

According to the BND, Russian leaders are not necessarily seeking territorial gain. Their real objective would be to fracture the unity of NATO. Bruno Kahl explains that Russia could exploit loopholes, for example by deploying “little green men” – unidentifiable soldiers – to protect Russian-speaking minorities in the Baltic states. These actions, although limited, could divide NATO by testing Article 5, which guarantees mutual assistance in the event of aggression.

List of possible scenarios considered by the BND:

• Sending clandestine forces to the Baltic countries.
• Sabotage of critical infrastructure in the Nordic countries.
• Disinformation operations targeting Western public opinion.

Bruno Kahl warns: “If such strategies gain the upper hand in Moscow, the risk of a military confrontation with NATO will increase significantly.”

Unprecedented Russian militarization

In September 2024, Moscow announced a 15% increase in its military strength, reaching 1.5 million troops. Russian military spending, measured by gross domestic product, far exceeds that of NATO member countries. This increased militarization could allow Russia to be ready for a large-scale attack by the end of the decade.

Faced with this growing threat, German secret services are calling for a coordinated response. Bruno Kahl insists on the importance of strengthening European resilience, both at a military and economic level. The objective is clear: prevent Russia from disrupting Western unity.