Scientists from Tel Aviv University (TAU), who have been working for five years to identify seismic noise created by human activity, have discovered that the unusual flow of heavy vehicles driven by members of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas heading towards the border between Gaza and Israel on October 7, 2023 was captured by three seismic stations in southern Israel.
Researchers then identified faint but widespread human-made seismic sounds as early as 6 a.m. This discovery could open new possibilities for the use of these tools in the fields of security and industry.
At 6:29 a.m., the first of 3,000 Hamas terrorists who would descend on southern Israel from Gaza that morning, by land, air and sea, crossed the border. They murdered more than 1,200 people and took 251 hostages of all ages, mostly civilians, while launching thousands of rockets into Israeli towns and villages.
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The results of this study, led by Asaf Inbal of the Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences and the Sackler Faculty of Exact Sciences, were published in The Seismic Recorda journal of the Seismological Society of America.
The researchers explained that forensic seismology is often used to monitor conventional and nuclear explosions. However, this is the first time that small ground movements, resulting from preparations for a terrorist attack, have been detected through analysis of the characteristics of seismic noise induced by vehicle traffic.
This discovery demonstrates the potential of seismic detection technology in providing early warnings of terrorist activity. The researchers point out, however, that the identification of movements in Gaza was carried out retrospectively, several months after the attack.
Inbal explained that “the Israeli Geological Survey operates a national network of dozens of highly sensitive seismometers that continuously monitor ground movements. This network is mainly designed to detect and locate earthquakes and provide warning in the event of strong ground shaking caused by major seismic events. »
Palestinians on the Israeli side of the Gaza border fence during the Hamas-led invasion and pogrom in southern Israel, October 7, 2023. (Mohammed Fayq Abu Mostafa/REUTERS)
“However, three stations in the network, located in Amazia, Ketziot and Yatir, at a distance of 30 to 50 kilometers from Gaza, recorded unusual levels of seismic noise early in the morning of October 7, 2023. This noise can be attributed with certainty to vehicle activity in the Gaza Strip, as Hamas terrorists gathered for the attack. The signals were recorded between 6 a.m. and 6:30 a.m., before the rocket attacks began. The probability that these signals originate from Gaza is greater than 99.9%. »
The team analyzed three years of data from the same three seismic stations and found no other instances of simultaneous seismic noise at all three stations, nor of seismic noise continuing for more than 10 minutes.
The stations are very far from each other. Ketziot and Amazia, for example, are about 80 kilometers apart and on previous Saturdays no correlation was observed between the data recorded at these stations.
Inbal said that “on the morning of the attack, when local activity near the stations was minimal [en raison de la fête juive de Simhat Torah]we observed unique and widespread seismic amplitudes, which increased monotonically as the attack time approached. No known natural or human source on the Israeli side could have generated seismic signals with a distribution and intensity similar to those attributed to Hamas movements. »
« Although the open-air music festival near Reim [où plus de 360 festivaliers ont été massacrés] generated some seismic noise, our analysis shows that this noise does not match the intensity or location of the noise sources recorded by the Israeli seismic network on October 7. »
Asaf Inbal of the Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences and the Sackler Faculty of Exact Sciences. (Credit: Tel Aviv University)
The seismic noise intensified as the attack approached, accompanied at times by short bursts that allowed scientists to locate their source and track their progress as the vehicles moved south and west. northern Gaza Strip, from Rafah in the south to the Erez crossing in the north, during the 30 minutes preceding the pogrom.
Inbal said the teams had “good detection capabilities along the Salah al-Din road, a major axis crossing Gaza from Rafah in the south to Beit Lahiya in the north. We can confirm with great certainty that their forces moved along this route at a speed of 25 to 50 kilometers per hour. Observations from stations dozens of kilometers from the Gaza border indicate the presence of convoys of heavy vehicles, such as bulldozers and trucks carrying agents. »
“Three minutes before the attack began, we detected sources of noise reaching the northern end of Gaza, near Beit Lahiya, as well as the southern end, near Khan Younes. At the same time, signals continued to come from central Gaza, near Nuseirat.”
“We know that the assault began almost simultaneously along the entire border, confirming that these seismic observations provide additional evidence of the extensive deployment of Hamas forces, likely facilitating the simultaneous breakdown of the land barrier. »
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